TYPHOON ULYSSES (VAMCO) ADVISORY NO. 09

Issued at: 2:00 AM PhT (18:00 GMT) Thursday, 12 November 2020
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday, 12 November 2020
Current Status & Outlook The large eye of  ULYSSES (VAMCO) has made landfall over Polillo Island Group, as it becomes a  Category 2 Typhoon. Its broad eyewall has started moving into Northern Quezon bringing violent winds with torrential rains over the area.

*At 2:00 AM today, the large eye has already made landfall over General Nakar in Northern Quezon, and will start traversing Central Luzon thereafter.

24-hr Outlook: TY ULYSSES (VAMCO) is forecast to turn westward with an increased forward speed of 25 km/hr, and could weaken slightly upon traversing the landmass of Central Luzon. The CORE (Eye + Eyewall) is expected to make another landfall Northern Quezon via General Nakar during the early hours of Thursday. Between 2 to 8 AM Thursday, the CORE will cross Central Luzon, passing over the provinces of Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Rizal, Laguna, Northern Bataan, Southern Tarlac and Zambales. It will then emerge over the coastal areas of Zambales before noontime Thursday, and shall be in the vicinity of Scarborough Shoal on Thursday evening.

Where is ULYSSES (VAMCO)? As of 11:00 PM PhT today, November 11…0900 GMT:

  • Location of Center:  Over the Polillo Island Group.
  • Coordinates: 14.9°N lat  122.1°E lon
  • Distance 1: 51 km east-northeast of Infanta, Quezon
  • Distance 2: 109 km east-northeast of Antipolo City, Rizal
  • Distance 3: 118 km east-northeast of Metro Manila
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 165 kph near the center…Gustiness: 205 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 22 kph, towards Central Luzon
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Landfall 2: Along General Nakar, Northern Quezon – between 2 to 3 AM Thursday, Nov 12 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • REST OF LUZON including NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION (NCR) – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • NORTHERN QUEZON & SOUTHERN AURORA – beginning Tonight.
  • NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, SOUTHERN PANGASINAN, ZAMBALES, BULACAN, LAGUNA, & METRO MANILA – Today
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal, Bays, & Lake Areas of Northern Samar, Bicol Region, Quezon, Aurora, Isabela, Cagayan – Today.
  • Coastal, Bays, & Lake Areas of Western Luzon (from Ilocos Norte down to Batangas – Beginning Tonight until Thursday (Nov 12).

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • THURSDAY EVENING: Moving westward across the West Philippine Sea, passing across  Scarborough Shoal, weakens into a Category 1 Typhoon…about 306 km WSW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8PM Nov 12: 15.2°N 117.3°E @ 120 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
  • FRIDAY EVENING: Already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while continuing moving west towards the South China Sea, re-intensifies further…about 776 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8PM Nov 13: 15.2°N 112.8°E @ 130 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (745 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (720 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 150 km from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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For more info: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/multi/?name=VAMCO

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL


Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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