TYPHOON ULYSSES (VAMCO) ADVISORY NO. 08

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 11 November 2020
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Thursday, 12 November 2020
Current Status & Outlook Typhoon ULYSSES (VAMCO) has slightly gained strength as it lingers for a few hours near the coast of Siruma, Camarines Sur as the “Eye” grew larger to about 80 km in diameter as observed thru PAGASA’s Doppler Radar in Daet. Its wobbling track has send the expanding southern eyewall hitting Camarines Norte, Catanduanes and the first and fourth districts of Camarines Sur this afternoon. 

24-hr Outlook: TY ULYSSES (VAMCO) is forecast to turn west-northwestward with an increased forward speed of 25 km/hr, and could reach Category 2 strength prior in making landfall over Polillo Island & Northern Quezon later tonight. The CORE (Eye + Eyewall) is expected to make landfall over Polillo Island Group on or before midnight tonight, and will make another landfall over Northern Quezon via General Nakar during the early hours of Thursday. Between 2 to 8 AM Thursday, the CORE will cross Central Luzon, passing along the provinces of Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, and Zambales. It will then emerge over the coastal areas of Zambales before noontime Thursday.

Where is ULYSSES (VAMCO)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, November 11…0900 GMT:

  • Location of Center:  Along the Coastal Waters of Calaguas Island and Siruma (Camarines Sur)
  • Coordinates: 14.4°N lat  123.2°E lon
  • Distance 1: 43 km northeast of Daet, Camarines Norte
  • Distance 2: 46 km north-northwest of Siruma, Camarines Sur
  • Distance 3: 87 km north of Naga City, Camarines Sur
  • Distance 4: 231 km east of Metro Manila
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 150 kph near the center…Gustiness: 185 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 14 kph, towards Central Luzon
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Landfall: Over Polillo Island Group (Northern Quezon), between 10 to 11 PM Tonight – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
  • Landfall 2: Along Northern Quezon-Southern Aurora Border, between 1 to 2 AM Thursday, Nov 12 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • BICOL REGION, NORTHERN SAMAR, QUEZON – Today.
  • REST OF LUZON including NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION (NCR) – beginning Tonight through Thursday (Nov 12).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • CAMARINES NORTE, REST OF CAMARINES SUR (except Rinconada), CATANDUANES – Today.
  • NORTHERN QUEZON & SOUTHERN AURORA – beginning Tonight.
  • NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, SOUTHERN PANGASINAN, ZAMBALES, BULACAN, & METRO MANILA – beginning Early Thursday Morning (Nov 12).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal, Bays, & Lake Areas of Northern Samar, Bicol Region, Quezon, Aurora, Isabela, Cagayan – Today.
  • Coastal, Bays, & Lake Areas of Western Luzon (from Ilocos Norte down to Batangas – Beginning Tonight until Thursday (Nov 12).

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Moving westward across the West Philippine Sea, approaching Scarborough Shoal, weakens into a Category 1 Typhoon…about 184 km WSW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2PM Nov 12: 15.5°N 118.4°E @ 120 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
  • FRIDAY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while continuing moving west towards the South China Sea, re-intensifies …about 625 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2PM Nov 13: 15.4°N 114.2°E @ 130 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (935 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (720 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 150 km from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

For more info: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/multi/?name=VAMCO

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL


Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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