SEVERE TROPICAL STORM ULYSSES (VAMCO) ADVISORY NO. 06

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 11 November 2020
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday, 11 November 2020
Current Status & Outlook ULYSSES (VAMCO) has intensified rapidly into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) and is likely to reach Typhoon classification today. The motion of this system has moved more to the west-northwest with a possible landfall over Northern Quezon-Southern Aurora Area by early Thursday morning.

24-hr Outlook: STS ULYSSES (VAMCO) is forecast to move almost westward with a forward speed of 20 km/hr, and could become a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) today. The developing core (eye+eyewall) is expected to pass more or less 150 km north of Naga City, Camarines Sur between 2 to 5 PM this afternoon, and over or very close to Polillo Island Group before midnight tonight. It shall eventually make landfall along or very near the Southern Aurora-Northern Quezon Border at around 2 AM tomorrow (Nov 12), and will traverse Central Luzon across the provinces of Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, and Zambales between 4 to 8 AM tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon, the core of Ulysses will emerge over the West Philippine Sea, accelerating westward. 

Where is ULYSSES (VAMCO)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, November 11…2100 GMT:

  • Location of Center: Over the Western Part of Central Philippine Sea
  • Coordinates: 14.7°N lat  125.2°E lon
  • Distance 1: 134 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes
  • Distance 2: 248 km east-northeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur
  • Distance 3: 446 km east of Metro Manila
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 110 kph near the center…Gustiness: 140 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 18 kph, across the Central Philippine Sea
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Landfall: Over Polillo Island Group (Northern Quezon), between 10 to 11 PM Tonight – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
  • Landfall 2: Along Northern Quezon-Southern Aurora Border, between 2 to 3 AM Thursday, Nov 12 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • BICOL REGION, NORTHERN SAMAR, QUEZON – Today.
  • REST OF LUZON including NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION (NCR) – beginning Tonight through Thursday (Nov 12).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • NORTHERN CAMARINES NORTE, COASTAL AREAS OF SIRUMA, GARCHITORENA, CARAMOAN (in Camarines Sur), NORTHERN CATANDUANES – Today.
  • COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHERN QUEZON & AURORA – beginning Tonight.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal, Bays, & Lake Areas of Northern Samar, Bicol Region, Quezon, Aurora, Isabela, Cagayan – Today.
  • Coastal, Bays, & Lake Areas of Western Luzon (from Ilocos Norte down to Batangas – Beginning Tonight until Thursday (Nov 12).

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Makes landfall along Southern Aurora-Northern Quezon Area…about 42 km E of Gapan City, Nueva Ecija [2AM Nov 12: 15.3°N 121.4°E @ 160 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH
  • FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: About to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while moving west across the West Philippine Sea…about 406 km WSW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2AM Nov 13: 15.3°N 116.3°E @ 130 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  • SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Already outside of the PAR, re-intensifies as it heads for Vietnam…about 798 km SSW of Hong Kong, China  [2AM Nov 14: 15.5°N 112.0°E @ 140 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 475 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (900 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (720 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 65 km from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

For more info: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/multi/?name=VAMCO

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL


Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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