TROPICAL STORM ULYSSES (VAMCO) ADVISORY NO. 05

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday, 10 November 2020
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 11 November 2020
Current Status & Outlook Tropical Storm ULYSSES (VAMCO) still intensifying while accelerating west-northwestward across the Philippine Sea…may start turning more to the west in response to a strengthening High Pressure Ridge over Southern China.  Potential landfall areas will be somewhere in Northern Quezon by early Thursday morning (Nov 12).

Meanwhile, residents of Bicol Region must continue monitoring the progress of this potential typhoon for possible changes in its track as it is still expected to bring strong winds with intense rainfall during its close passage on Wednesday afternoon through Thursday early morning.

24-hr Outlook: TS ULYSSES (VAMCO) is forecast to turn slightly westward at a decreased forward speed of 17 km/hr, and could become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) later tonight. It is therefore expected reach Typhoon classification by tomorrow morning, and shall pass close to the northern coastal areas of Catanduanes and Camarines Provinces in the afternoon.

Where is ULYSSES (VAMCO)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, November 10…0900 GMT:

  • Location of Center: Over the Mid-Western Part of Central Philippine Sea
  • Coordinates: 14.3°N lat  127.3°E lon
  • Distance 1: 336 km east of Pandan, Catanduanes
  • Distance 2: 450 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur
  • Distance 3: 465 km east of Daet, Camarines Norte
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 25 kph, across the Central Philippine Sea
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Landfall 1: Over Polillo Island Group (Northern Quezon), between 12 to 1 AM Thursday, Nov 12 – with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
  • Landfall 2: Along Infanta-General Nakar Area (Northern Quezon), between 2 to 3 AM Thursday, Nov 12 – with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • BICOL REGION, NORTHERN SAMAR, QUEZON – beginning Wednesday morning (Nov 11).
  • CENTRAL & SOUTHERN LUZON including NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION (NCR), MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, SOUTHERN PORTION OF NORTHERN LUZON – beginning Wednesday afternoon (Nov 11).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • CAMARINES NORTE, CAMARINES SUR DISTRICTS 1 & 4, CATANDUANES – beginning Wednesday afternoon (Nov 11).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal, Bays, & Lake Areas of Northern Samar, Bicol Region, Quezon, & Aurora – beginning Wednesday (Nov 11).

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) while passing close to the northern coastal areas of Catanduanes and Camarines Sur…about 54 km NNW of Pandan, Catanduanes [2PM Nov 11: 14.5°N 124.0°E @ 130 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH
  • THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching  Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal while over the West Philippine Sea, moving away from Central Luzon…about 194 km W of Olongapo City, Zambales [2PM Nov 12: 15.1°N 118.5°E @ 130 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH
  • FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Moving across the South China Sea after exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), re-intensifies…about 673 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan  [2PM Nov 13: 15.1°N 113.8°E @ 140 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 994 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (775 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (670 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): — km from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

For more info: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/multi/?name=VAMCO

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL


Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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