TROPICAL STORM ULYSSES (VAMCO) ADVISORY NO. 04

Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Tuesday, 10 November 2020
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday, 10 November 2020
Current Status & Outlook Tropical Storm ULYSSES (VAMCO) gaining strength as it moved northwestward during the past 6 hours, remains a serious threat to Bicol Region and Central Luzon.  Potential landfall areas will be somewhere along Southern Polillo and Real-Infanta Area by early Thursday morning (Nov 12).

Meanwhile, residents of Bicol Region must closely monitor and pay attention on the progress of this potential typhoon for possible changes in its track as it is still expected to bring strong winds with intense rainfall during its close passage on Wednesday afternoon through Thursday early morning.

24-hr Outlook: TS ULYSSES (VAMCO) is forecast to turn west-northwestward at a forward speed of 17 km/hr, and could become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) later today. It is therefore expected reach Typhoon classification by tomorrow, Wednesday morning as it approaches the northern offshore areas of Catanduanes.

Where is ULYSSES (VAMCO)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, November 10…0300 GMT:

  • Location of Center: Over the Mid-Western Part of Central Philippine Sea
  • Coordinates: 13.6°N lat  128.5°E lon
  • Distance 1: 465 km east of Virac, Catanduanes
  • Distance 2: 574 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur
  • Distance 3: 597 km east of Daet, Camarines Norte
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center…Gustiness: 95 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) Northwest @ 14 kph, across the Central Philippine Sea
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Landfall 1: Over Southern part of Polillo Island (Northern Quezon), between 1 to 2 AM Thursday, Nov 12 – with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
  • Landfall 2: Along Real-Infanta Area (Northern Quezon), between 2 to 4 AM Thursday, Nov 12 – with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • BICOL REGION, NORTHERN SAMAR, QUEZON – beginning Wednesday afternoon (Nov 11).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • CAMARINES NORTE, NORTHEASTERN CAMARINES SUR (PARTIDO DISTRICT), NORTHERN CATANDUANES – beginning Wednesday afternoon (Nov 11).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal, Bays, & Lake Areas of Northern Samar, Bicol Region, Quezon, & Aurora – beginning Wednesday (Nov 11).

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • WEDNESDAY MORNING: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) while over the western part of the Central Philippine Sea, approaching the offshore areas of Northern Catanduanes…about 147 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes [8AM Nov 11: 14.6°N 125.4°E @ 130 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH
  • THURSDAY MORNING: In the vicinity of Olongapo City-Subic Bay Area (Zambales) after traversing Northern Quezon-Bulacan Area…about 7 km NNE of Olongapo City, Zambales [8AM Nov 12: 14.9°N 120.3°E @ 130 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH
  • FRIDAY MORNING: Accelerating westward across the West Philippine Sea as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), re-intensifies further…about 539 km WSW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan  [8AM Nov 13: 15.0°N 115.1°E @ 140 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 310 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (705 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (670 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): — km from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

For more info: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/multi/?name=VAMCO

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL



Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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