SUPER TYPHOON ROLLY (GONI) ADVISORY NO. 09

Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Sunday, 01 November 2020
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday, 01 November 2020
Current Status & Outlook Extremely Catastrophic Super Typhoon ROLLY (GONI)* has maintained its strength as it moves closer to Catanduanes, endangering the Bicol Region with violent winds and extreme rainfall. Landfall is now imminent over Catanduanes and Eastern Camarines Sur or Eastern Albay within the next 6 hours, with a high strike probability of 95-100%. 

*This tropical cyclone is similar in strength and track of Super Typhoon ROSING (ANGELA) which devastated the Bicol Region, Central & Southern Luzon in November 02-03, 1995. Please take full preparations & precautions.

24-hr Outlook: STY ROLLY (GONI) is forecast to weaken further and is expected to move westward with a decreased forward speed of 19 km/hr. The core (eye+eyewall) is expected to make landfall over Catanduanes on or after sunrise this morning, and shall do another landfall over Partido District in Camarines Sur on or before noontime today. It will then cross North-Central Camarines Sur between 12 to 4 PM, and across Southern Quezon tonight. By early Monday morning, ROLLY will traverse Laguna-Metro Manila Area, before moving out into the West Philippine Sea.

Where is ROLLY (GONI)? As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, October 31…1500 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Over the mid-western portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.9°N 125.8°E)
  • Distance 1: 163 km east-northeast of Bato, Catanduanes
  • Distance 2: 252 km east of Tigaon, Camarines Sur
  • Distance 3: 283 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 285 kph near the center…Gustiness: 350 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Southwest @ 23 kph, towards Bicol Region-Southern Quezon-NCR Area
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Landfall 1: Over Catanduanes, between 6 to 8 AM today – with High Strike Probability of 90-95%.
  • Landfall 2: Over Sagñay-Tigaon Area, Camarines Sur (Partido), between 10 to 11 AM today – with High Strike Probability of 90-95%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Bicol Region – Today
  • CaLaBaRZon, Marinduque, NCR, Parts of Central Luzon – beginning this afternoon

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Catanduanes, Camarines Provinces, Northern Albay including Rapu-Rapu Islands – Today
  • Quezon, Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, Rizal, NCR, Parts of Central Luzon – beginning this afternoon
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal Areas, Inland Lakes, & Bays of Bicol Region & Quezon – Today.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • SUNDAY EVENING: In the vicinity of Gumaca-Pitogo Area, Southern Quezon…weakens to a Category 2 Typhoon…about 49 km ESE of Tayabas City, Quezon [8PM Nov 01: 13.9°N 122.1°E @ 175 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM 
  • MONDAY EVENING: Over Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal in the West Philippine Sea…downgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon…about 270 km WSW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan  [8PM Nov 02: 15.4°N 117.6°E @ 120 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 904 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (570 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (700 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 100 km from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

 

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL



Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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