SUPER TYPHOON ROLLY (GONI) ADVISORY NO. 08

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 31 October 2020
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Sunday, 01 November 2020
Current Status & Outlook Super Typhoon ROLLY (GONI)* has started to weaken but remains an Extremely Catastrophic (Category 5) Tropical Cyclone  as it continues to move dangerously closer to Bicol Region. The Outer Rainbands of this howler has started to spread across Catanduanes.

*This tropical cyclone is similar in strength and track of Super Typhoon ROSING (ANGELA) which devastated the Bicol Region, Central & Southern Luzon in November 02-03, 1995. Please take full preparations & precautions.

The potential landfall area will be tomorrow early morning, November 01, along Catanduanes and Camarines Sur  with a high strike probability of 90-95%. 

24-hr Outlook: STY ROLLY (GONI) is forecast to weaken further as it moves  west-southwest to westward with an increased forward speed of 28 km/hr. The core (eye+eyewall) is expected to make landfall over Catanduanes by early tomorrow morning, and shall do another landfall over Partido District in Camarines Sur, passing over North-Central Camarines Sur between 5 to 8 AM, and across Bondoc Peninsula before 12 noon. At around 2 to 6 PM tomorrow, the core will be crossing Batangas Province and shall emerge over Verde Island Passage tomorrow evening. 

Where is ROLLY (GONI)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 31…0900 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the mid-western portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 14.4°N 127.0°E)
  • Distance 1: 302 km east-northeast of Bato, Catanduanes
  • Distance 2: 388 km east-northeast of Sagñay, Camarines Sur
  • Distance 3: 420 km east-northeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 285 kph near the center…Gustiness: 350 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Southwest @ 24 kph, towards Bicol Region-Southern Quezon-Batangas Area
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Landfall 1: Over Catanduanes, between 2 to 3 AM tomorrow, Sunday (Nov 01) – with High Strike Probability of 90-95%.
  • Landfall 2: Over Sagñay, Camarines Sur (Partido), between 5 to 6 AM tomorrow, Sunday (Nov 01) – with High Strike Probability of 90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Bicol Region – beginning late tonight or early Sunday morning (Nov 01)
  • CaLaBaRZon, Marinduque, NCR, Parts of Central Luzon – beginning Sunday morning (Nov 01)

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Catanduanes & Camarines Provinces – beginning early Sunday morning (Nov 01)
  • Quezon, Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, Rizal, NCR, Parts of Central Luzon – beginning Sunday morning or afternoon (Nov 01)
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal Areas, Inland Lakes, & Bays of Bicol Region & Quezon – beginning tonight through tomorrow (Sunday Nov 01).

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • SUNDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Batangas Coastline…weakens to a Category 4 Super Typhoon…about 30 km SSW of Lucena City, Quezon [2PM Nov 01: 13.7°N 121.5°E @ 240 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH 
  • MONDAY AFTERNOON: About to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while over the West Philippine Sea…downgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon…about 487 km WSW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan  [2PM Nov 02: 15.0°N 115.6°E @ 140 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 904 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (500 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (630 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 95 km from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

 

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL



Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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