SUPER TYPHOON ROLLY (GONI) ADVISORY NO. 08
Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 31 October 2020
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Sunday, 01 November 2020
|Current Status & Outlook||Super Typhoon ROLLY (GONI)* has started to weaken but remains an Extremely Catastrophic (Category 5) Tropical Cyclone as it continues to move dangerously closer to Bicol Region. The Outer Rainbands of this howler has started to spread across Catanduanes.
*This tropical cyclone is similar in strength and track of Super Typhoon ROSING (ANGELA) which devastated the Bicol Region, Central & Southern Luzon in November 02-03, 1995. Please take full preparations & precautions.
The potential landfall area will be tomorrow early morning, November 01, along Catanduanes and Camarines Sur with a high strike probability of 90-95%.
24-hr Outlook: STY ROLLY (GONI) is forecast to weaken further as it moves west-southwest to westward with an increased forward speed of 28 km/hr. The core (eye+eyewall) is expected to make landfall over Catanduanes by early tomorrow morning, and shall do another landfall over Partido District in Camarines Sur, passing over North-Central Camarines Sur between 5 to 8 AM, and across Bondoc Peninsula before 12 noon. At around 2 to 6 PM tomorrow, the core will be crossing Batangas Province and shall emerge over Verde Island Passage tomorrow evening.
|Where is ROLLY (GONI)?||As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 31…0900 GMT:
|How strong is it?||Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 285 kph near the center…Gustiness: 350 kph.|
|Past Movement (06 hrs)||West-Southwest @ 24 kph, towards Bicol Region-Southern Quezon-Batangas Area|
|Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)||
|What Philippine areas will be directly affected?||Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):
Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
|Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+||
+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates for more details.
|2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**||
**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
|Other Storm’s Meteorological Information||
|Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.|
Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)
PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.