Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Saturday, 31 October 2020
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 31 October 2020
Current Status & Outlook Super Typhoon ROLLY (GONI)* might have reached its peak strength as it continues to intensify during the past six (6) hours…remains an Extremely Catastrophic (Category 5) Tropical Cyclone.  It remains a serious threat to Bicol Region, Southern & Central Luzon including the National Capital Region (NCR).

*Similar in strength and track of Super Typhoon ROSING (ANGELA) which devastated the Bicol Region, Central & Southern Luzon in November 02-03, 1995. Please take full preparations & precautions.

The potential landfall area will be tomorrow morning, November 01, along Northern Catanduanes and the Northern Portions of Camarines Provinces  with a high strike probability of 90%. 

24-hr Outlook: STY ROLLY (GONI) is forecast to weaken slightly (at Category 4 status) as it maintains its west-southwestward movement with an increased forward speed of 25 km/hr. The core (eye+eyewall) is expected to make landfall over Northern Catanduanes before sunrise tomorrow morning, and shall do another landfall over Partido District in Camarines Sur, passing over Caramoan-Lagonoy Area between 6-7 AM, and could be in the vicinity of Tinambac-San Miguel Bay Area between 7-8 AM tomorrow morning.

Where is ROLLY (GONI)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 31…0300 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the middle part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.0°N 128.2°E)
  • Distance 1: 445 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes
  • Distance 2: 540 km east-northeast of Siruma, Camarines Sur
  • Distance 3: 561 km east-northeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 295 kph near the center…Gustiness: 360 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Southwest @ 23 kph, towards Northern Bicol-Quezon-NCR Area
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Landfall 1: Over Northern Catanduanes, between 4 to 6 AM tomorrow, Sunday (Nov 01) – with High Strike Probability of 90%.
  • Landfall 2: Over Caramoan, Camarines Sur (Partido), between 6 to 8 AM tomorrow, Sunday (Nov 01) – with High Strike Probability of 90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Bicol Region – beginning late tonight or early Sunday morning (Nov 01)
  • CaLaBaRZon, Marinduque, NCR, Parts of Central Luzon – beginning Sunday morning (Nov 01)

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Catanduanes & Camarines Provinces – beginning early Sunday morning (Nov 01)
  • Quezon, Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, Rizal, NCR, Parts of Central Luzon – beginning Sunday morning or afternoon (Nov 01)
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal & Inland Lakes, Bays of Bicol Region & Quezon – beginning tonight

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • SUNDAY MORNING: In the vicinity of Tinambac, Camarines Sur, entering San Miguel Bay…weakens to a Category 4 Super Typhoon…about 31 km NE of Naga City, Camarines Sur [8AM Nov 01: 13.8°N 123.4°E @ 250 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM 
  • MONDAY MORNING: Approaching  Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal or over the West Philippine Sea…downgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon after traversing Southern Luzon and NCR…about 225 km W of Olongapo City, Zambales  [8AM Nov 02: 15.0°N 118.2°E @ 140 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  • TUESDAY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…weakens gradually into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moves rapidly west towards Vietnam…about 622 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8AM Nov 03: 15.0°N 114.3°E @ 110 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 480 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 895 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (520 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (630 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 95 km from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)





Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (


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