SUPER TYPHOON ROLLY (GONI) ADVISORY NO. 06

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday, 31 October 2020
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Saturday, 31 October 2020
Current Status & Outlook Extremely Catastrophic (Category 5) Super Typhoon ROLLY (GONI) has slightly intensified over the past 12 hours as it starts to slide on a west-southwest direction, endangering Bicol Region, Southern & Central Luzon including the National Capital Region (NCR).

The potential landfall area will be tomorrow morning, November 01, along the northern tip of Catanduanes and the Northern Portions of Camarines Provinces  with a high strike probability of 80-90%. 

24-hr Outlook: STY ROLLY (GONI) is forecast to weaken slightly as it maintains its west-southwestward movement with an increased forward speed of 24 km/hr approaching the northern coast of Catanduanes with winds of 260 km/hr by early tomorrow morning

Where is ROLLY (GONI)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 31…2100 GMT:

  • Location: Along the mid-northern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.6°N 129.3°E)
  • Distance 1: 579 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes
  • Distance 2: 670 km east-northeast of Siruma, Camarines Sur
  • Distance 3: 693 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 285 kph near the center…Gustiness: 350 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Southwest @ 21 kph, towards Northern Bicol-Quezon-NCR Area
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Along Siruma-Daet Area (Northern Camarines Provinces), between 8 to 10 AM Sunday, Nov 01 – with High Strike Probability of 90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Bicol Region – beginning early Sunday morning (Nov 01)

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Catanduanes & Camarines Provinces – beginning early Sunday morning (Nov 01)
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal & Inland Lakes, Bays of Bicol Region & Quezon – beginning tonight

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens slightly as it continues to move west-southwestward approaching the Northern Coastal Areas of Catanduanes & Camarines Provinces…about 82 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2AM Nov 01: 14.2°N 124.9°E @ 260 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM 
  • MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerging over the West Philippine Sea or near the west coast of Zambales…downgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon after traversing Quezon, NCR, and Bataan-Subic Bay Area…about 97 km W of Olongapo City, Zambales  [2AM Nov 02: 15.0°N 119.4°E @ 140 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  • TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…weakens gradually into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moves west towards Vietnam…about 677 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2AM Nov 03: 14.9°N 113.8°E @ 110 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 480 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 904 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (495 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (550 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 50 km from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

 

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL



Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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