SUPER TYPHOON ROLLY (GONI) ADVISORY NO. 05

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 30 October 2020
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday, 31 October 2020
Current Status & Outlook ROLLY (GONI) is now an Extremely Catastrophic (Category 5) Super Typhoon after undergoing Rapid Intensification (RI) process during the past 12 hours. This howler continues to threaten the northern coastal areas of the Bicol Region, and the areas of Central & Southern Luzon including the National Capital Region (NCR).

The potential landfall area will be on the evening of November 01, along Northern Quezon with a high strike probability of 90%. 

24-hr Outlook: STY ROLLY (GONI) is forecast to maintain its strength for the next 12 hours, before weakening into a Category 4 Super Typhoon on Saturday afternoon (Oct 31). It is then expected to begin sliding west-southwestward with a forward speed of 18 km/hr across the middle portion of the Central Philippine Sea

Where is ROLLY (GONI)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 30…0900 GMT:

  • Location: Along the northeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.2°N 131.2°E)
  • Distance 1: 793 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes
  • Distance 2: 883 km east-northeast of Siruma, Camarines Sur
  • Distance 3: 973 km east of Casiguran, Aurora
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 280 kph near the center…Gustiness: 335 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Southwest @ 16 kph, towards Central Philippine Sea
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Along Real-Infanta Area (Northern Quezon), between 4 to 6 PM Sunday, Nov 01 – with High Strike Probability of 90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to a Category 4-Super Typhoon as it moves west-southwestward across the middle portion of the Central Philippine Sea…about 412 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2PM Oct 31: 15.2°N 127.8°E @ 250 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM 
  • SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Over Lamon Bay, approaching Balesin Island (Quezon)…downgraded to a Category 4 Major Typhoon while turning westward towards Northern Quezon-Rizal Area…about 63 km ESE of Infanta, Quezon  [2PM Nov 01: 14.5°N 122.2°E @ 220 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  • MONDAY AFTERNOON: About to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…weakens gradually into a Category 1 Typhoon after the National Capital Region Area…about 362 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2PM Nov 02: 16.1°N 116.6°E @ 120 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 911 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (435 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (440 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 50 km from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

 

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL



Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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