TROPICAL DEPRESSION PEPITO ADVISORY NO. 04

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday, 20 October 2020
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Tuesday, 20 October 2020
Current Status and Outlook The large Tropical Depression (TD) PEPITO has resumed its slightly faster movement towards Central-Northern Luzon Area while maintaining its strength. The potential area of landfall will be somewhere along the east coast of Aurora tonight. Rainy conditions with some gusty winds will continue to be felt across Luzon and portions of MiMaRoPa today through Wednesday (Oct 21).

24-hr Outlook: TD PEPITO could become a Tropical Storm (TS) later today and will continue moving west-northwestward with a decreased forward speed of 22 km/hr. It will be passing about 220 km north of Naga City, Camarines Sur at around 2pm this afternoon. After making landfall over Aurora tonight, the center will cross the southern part of Northern Luzon and shall be over Nueva Vizcaya by early tomorrow morning (2am Oct 21).

The combination of the Pepito’s Rainbands, Trough and the Enhanced Northeasterly & Southwesterly Surface Windflows will bring overcast skies with scattered to widespread “on-&-off” rain showers and thunderstorms across Luzon and Visayas including MiMaRoPa and Sulu Archipelago today and tomorrow.

Where is PEPITO? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 20…2100 GMT. The center was located along the western portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.2°N 125.3°E), about 178 km northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes or 360 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora.
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 26 kph, towards Central-Northern Luzon Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Somewhere along the East Coast of Aurora (between the Towns of San Ildefonso-Dipaculao-Dinalungan-Casiguran Area), between 9 to 11 PM local time Tonight – with Medium Strike Probability of 65%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to >100 mm expected in 24 hrs):
>> Most Parts of Northern & Central Luzon including Metro Manila & CaLaBaRZon – Today through Tomorrow Morning (Wed).


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None
.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary** WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Nueva Vizcaya as it crosses the southern portion of Northern Luzon…about 55 km ESE of Baguio City, Benguet [2AM Oct 21: 16.3°N 121.1°E @ 65 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving westward across the West Philippine Sea as it is about to exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), intensifies  further…about 321 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2AM Oct 22: 16.5°N 117.0°E @ 85 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while moving westward across the South China Sea, approaching Southern Hainan and Northern Vietnam…about 582 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2AM Oct 23: 17.0°N 114.6°E @ 100 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 220 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 755 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Current Summary/Additional  Reference Points Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue October 20, 2020
Location of Center/Eye: Near 15.2°N Lat 125.3°E Lon
Distance 1: 220 km NE of Caramoan, Camarines Sur
Distance 2: 260 km E of Goa, Camarines Sur
Distance 3: 290 km NE of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 287 km NE of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 461 km E of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 16.3°N 121.1°E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 16.5°N 117.0°E (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 17.0°N 114.6°E (STS)

Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

 

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL


Screenshot/Image Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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