TROPICAL DEPRESSION PEPITO ADVISORY NO. 02

Issued at: 2:00 PM PhT (06:00 GMT) Monday, 19 October 2020
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday, 19 October 2020
Current Status and Outlook Tropical Depression (TD) PEPITO continues to move across the Philippine Sea on a fast, westerly track…increasing its threat to Luzon. Its rainbands are now spreading across Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. Its forecast area of landfall will be somewhere along the east coast of Aurora by tomorrow, Tuesday evening (Oct 20). Wet Weather with some gusty winds will be expected across Luzon and portions of MiMaRoPa beginning tomorrow through Wednesday (Oct 21).

24-hr Outlook: TD PEPITO is forecast to intensify into a Tropical Storm (TS) tonight…and could become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) by tomorrow morning. It shall move west-northwestward with a decreased forward speed of 20 km/hr towards Central & Northern Luzon. It will be approaching the eastern coastal areas of Aurora between 8:00 AM to 2:00 PM tomorrow, while passing about 230 km northeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur

The combination of the Pepito’s Rainbands, Trough and the Enhanced Northeasterly Surface Windflow will bring overcast skies with scattered to widespread “on-&-off” rain showers and thunderstorms across Luzon and Visayas including Northeastern Mindanao today and tomorrow.

Where is PEPITO? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 19…0300 GMT. The center was located along the middle portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.7°N 128.4°E), about 455 km east of Virac, Catanduanes or 732 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora.
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 60 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 36 kph, towards Central Luzon.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Somewhere along the East Coast of Aurora (between the Towns of San Ildefonso-Dipaculao-Dinalungan-Casiguran Area), between 9 to 11 PM local time  tomorrow evening, Tuesday (Oct 20) – with High Strike Probability of 65%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to >100 mm expected in 24 hrs):
>> Bicol Region & Eastern Visayas – Today.


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None
.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary** TUESDAY MORNING: Strengthens rapidly into a TS as it passes well to the northeast of Bicol Region…about 131 km NNE of Pandan, Catanduanes [8AM Oct 20: 15.1°N 124.7°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Weakens as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea after traversing the Southern Part of Northern Luzon…about 84 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8AM Oct 21: 16.2°N 119.2°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH

THURSDAY MORNING: Regains STS classification as it is about to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 458 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8AM Oct 22: 16.2°N 115.7°E @ 100kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 865 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Current Summary/Additional  Reference Points Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon October 19, 2020
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.7°N Lat 128.4°E Lon
Distance 1: 431 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 441 km E of Bato, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 513 km E of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 563 km E of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 797 km E of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 15.1°N 124.7°E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 16.2°N 119.2°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

 

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL


Image Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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