SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PAENG (NALGAE) ADVISORY NO. 09

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 29 October 2022
Next update: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Sunday, 30 October 2022
Current Status & Outlook Severe Tropical Storm PAENG (NALGAE) has abruptly slowed down and made landfall over Lucena City at around 2 PM this afternoon, and is now traversing the National Capital Region…in the vicinity of Manila-San Juan City Area.  It has jogged northwestward during the past six hours and is now approaching the northern portion of Metro Manila. 

24-hr Outlook: STS PAENG is forecast to resume moving west-northwest later tonight at a forward speed of 17 km/hr,  and will be in the vicinity of Malolos, Bulacan by 8 PM tonight. By 8 AM tomorrow morning, Paeng will emerge over the West Philippine Sea, passing very close to the Scarborough Shoal, and is likely to re-intensify.

The storm’s large rainbands and trough will continue to bring isolated to occasional rains & thunderstorms with gusty winds (30-60 kph) across Luzon, becoming more frequent and stormy across Bicol Region, Southern Tagalog Provinces, Visayas, MiMaRoPa, & Sulu Archipelago today.  The risk of floods and landslides is currently at medium to high. 

Where is PAENG? As of 6:00 PM PhT today, October 29…1000 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Over Manila-San Juan City  (near 14.6°N 121.0°E)
  • Distance 1:  10 km of south-southwest of Quezon City
  • Distance 2: 10 km south of Valenzuela City
  • Distance 3: 35 km southeast of Malolos, Bulacan
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 95 kph near the center…Gustiness: 120 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) Northwest @ 17 kph, towards Bulacan-Zambales Area.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)
  • None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa, Luzon, Visayas.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • NCR, Bulacan, Zambales  ~ Today.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal & Beachfront Areas of CaLaBaRZon, Bicol Region, Quezon Province, & Western Luzon.

+Waves of 1 to 2 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • TONIGHT: In the vicinity of Malolos, Bulacan as it WNW towards Southern Zambales, and out into the West Philippine Sea. Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS)…about 45 km SSE of Manila [8PM Oct 29: 14.8°N 120.8°E @ 85 kph]Forecast ConfidenceMEDIUM
  • SUNDAY MORNING: Re-intensifies back to an STS while over the West Philippine Sea while passing near Scarborough Shoal. Turns NNW…about 210 km WSW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8AM Oct 30: 15.2°N 118.3°E @ 110 kph]Forecast Confidence MEDIUM
  • MONDAY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while over the South China Sea, intensifies into a Typhoon…about 369 km WNW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8AM Oct 31: 17.2°N 116.7°E @ 140 kph]Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Large (1,240 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,300 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  85 km outward from the center
Disclaimer: Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2k)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

For more info visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/multi/?name=NALGAE

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Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin)

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