TROPICAL DEPRESSION OFEL ADVISORY NO. 03

Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday, 14 October 2020
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 14 October 2020
Current Status and Outlook Tropical Depression OFEL moving across the southern part of Burias Island…expected to pass over or very close to Southern Marinduque late this evening. Its displaced thick Rainbands continues to spread across the whole Bicol Region, and is now extending across the whole of CalaBaRZon including Metro Manila and Mindoro.

24-hr Outlook: TD OFEL is forecast to maintain its strength as it moves westward @ 18 km/hr across the Sibuyan Sea today, making landfall over Oriental Mindoro around midnight or early tomorrow (Thursday) morning. It is then expected to emerge over the northwestern coast of Occidental Mindoro around 8:00 AM tomorrow

The trough of this depression will continue bring overcast skies with rain showers and thunderstorms across Visayas, Northeastern Mindanao, and the rest of Southern & Central Luzon including Metro Manila today.

Where is OFEL? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 14…0300 GMT. The center was located over San Isidro, Burias Island (near 12.8°N 123.3°E), about 46 km south-southwest of Ligao City, Albay or 56 km north-northwest of Masbate City, Masbate.
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 21 kph, towards Romblon-Marinduque-Mindoro Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Landfall 3 – Along the southern tip of Marinduque, between 7 to 8 PM Tonight – with High Strike Probability of 65%.

:: Landfall 4 – Somewhere along the towns of Naujan & Pola, Oriental Mindoro, between 1 to 2 AM local time tomorrow, Thursday (Oct 15) – with Medium Strike Probability of 50%.

What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to >100 mm expected in 24 hrs):
>> Bicol Region, Southern Quezon, Romblon, Marinduque, Southern Luzon, Mindoro, Metro Manila,  Portions of Central Luzon – Today.


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None
.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary** THURSDAY MORNING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea, near the NW Coast of Occidental Mindoro…intensifies slightly…about 135 km WSW of Batangas City, Batangas [8AM Oct 15: 13.3°N 119.9°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM

FRIDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves across the South Chin Sea, exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 540 km W of Olongapo City, Zambales [8AM Oct 16: 14.3°N 115.3°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 400 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Current Summary/Additional  Reference Points Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Wed October 14, 2020
Location of Center/Eye: Near 12.8°N Lat 123.3°E Lon
Distance 1: 66 km S of Nabua, Camarines Sur
Distance 2: 69 km SSW of Tabaco City, Albay
Distance 3: 70 km S of Iriga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 4: 89 km S of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 312 km SE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.3°N 119.9°E (TD)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 14.3°N 115.3°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

 

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL


Image Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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