Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 18 December 2021
Current Status & Outlook The core of Typhoon ODETTE (RAI) is now moving away from the Kalayaan Island Group after passing very close to the north from 3 to 5 PM today…now heading towards the coastal waters of Central Vietnam.

*Since the typhoon is already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and will no longer be a threat to the Kalayaan Island Group, this will be the Final Advisory on Odette (Rai).

24-hr Outlook: The core of TY ODETTE (RAI) is forecast to maintain its Category 3 strength and movement of 20 kph (WNW), and will be passing along the coastal waters of Central Vietnam by tomorrow afternoon with no landfall expected.

Where is ODETTE (RAI)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 18…0900 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the northwestern coastal waters of Kalayaan Island Group (near 11.6°N 114.0°E)
  • Distance 1: 68 km north-northwest of Pagasa/Thitu Island, Kalayaan, Palawan
  • Distance 2: 553 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan
  • Distance 3: 528 km east of Nha Trang, Vietnam
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 205 kph near the center…Gustiness: 250 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 24 kph, towards the Coastal Waters of Central Vietnam.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)
  • None
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Kalayaan Islands – Tonight & Tomorrow.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Kalayaan Islands – Until This Evening Only.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Kalayaan Island Group.

+Waves of 3 to 5 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Passing along the coastal waters of Central Vietnam…weakens into a Category 2 Typhoon, starts to veer towards the north…about 973 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 19: 13.7°N 110.7°E @ 175 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens rapidly into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as recurves NE-ward while along the coastal waters of Southeastern Hainan…about 551 km SSW of Hong Kong, China [2PM Dec 20: 18.2°N 111.3°E @ 95 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 950 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (915 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (890 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 160 km outward from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)


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Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone-bulletin-iframe)


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