TYPHOON ODETTE (RAI) ADVISORY NO. 11

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday, 18 December 2021
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 18 December 2021
Current Status & Outlook Typhoon ODETTE (RAI) re-intensifies over the West Philippine Sea, as it approaches the Kalayaan Islands.

24-hr Outlook: The core of TY ODETTE (RAI) is forecast to continue re-intensifying and will pass very close to the north of Kalayaan Islands this afternoon (between 1 to 3 PM) while moving west-northwestward at a speed of 24 kph. Odette will then exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on or before 12 noon today, and will be approaching the coastal waters of Vietnam tomorrow.

Where is ODETTE (RAI)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 18…2100 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Over the West Philippine Sea (near 10.9°N 116.6°E)
  • Distance 1: 298 km west-northwest of Roxas, Palawan
  • Distance 2: 261 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan
  • Distance 3: 254 km east of Kalayaan Island Group, Palawan
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 185 kph near the center…Gustiness: 230 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 24 kph, towards Kalayaan Islands.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)
  • None
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Kalayaan Islands – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Kalayaan Islands – Today.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Western Palawan & the Kalayaan Islands.

+Waves of 3 to 5 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • SATURDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Kalayaan Island Group, after exiting PAR…continues to re-intensify…about 40 km NNE of Kalayaan Islands, Palawan [2PM Dec 18: 11.4°N 114.4°E @ 205 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Approaching the eastern coast of Vietnam, starts to move northwestward while weakening into a Category 2 Typhoon…about 774 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 19: 12.3°N 112.1°E @ 175 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens rapidly into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as recurves NNE-ward while along the coastal waters of Central Vietnam…about 801 km SSW of Hong Kong, China [2AM Dec 20: 16.0°N 110.6°E @ 110 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 955 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Large (1,015 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (840 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 150 km outward from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL



Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone-bulletin-iframe)

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