Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Friday, 17 December 2021
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 17 December 2021
Current Status & Outlook Typhoon ODETTE (RAI) has begun reorganizing while crossing the Sulu Sea, and is now showing a large developing “eye” at the center…expected to make landfall over Northern Palawan within the next couple of hours. Its rain bands have started to cover much of Palawan with Tropical Storm to Typhoon-Force Winds.

24-hr Outlook: TY ODETTE (RAI) is forecast to maintain its intensity while crossing Northern Palawan this afternoon with a westerly track at a speed. of 25 kph. The core of Odette will then emerge over the western coast of Northern Palawan tonight, and will traverse the West Philippine Sea as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late tomorrow morning.

Where is ODETTE (RAI)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 17…0300 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Over the northern part of Sulu Sea, approaching the eastern coast of  Dumaran Island, Palawan (near 10.1°N 120.4°E)
  • Distance 1: 126 km east of Roxas, Palawan
  • Distance 2: 177 km east of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan
  • Distance 3: 100 km southwest of Cuyo Island, Palawan
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 185 kph near the center…Gustiness: 230 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 27 kph, towards Northern Palawan.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)
  • Landfall 08:  Over Northern Palawan, between 2 to 5 PM today – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Palawan, Sulu Archipelago – Today.
  • Kalayaan Island Group – Tomorrow.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Cuyo-Pamalican Area – Today.
  • Northern Palawan – Today.
  • Kalayaan Island Group – Tomorrow.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Western Visayas, Sulu Archipelago, & Palawan including Calamian Group & Kalayaan Island Group.

+Waves of 3 to 5 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • FRIDAY EVENING: Over the western coast of Northern Palawan as it maintains its strength and track…about 57 km NNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Dec 17: 10.4°N 118.5°E @ 185 kph]Forecast ConfidenceHIGH
  • SATURDAY MORNING: Approaching the Kalayaan Island Group, as it is about to exit PAR…strengthens more…about 363 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Dec 18: 10.9°N 115.6°E @ 195 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • SATURDAY EVENING: Traversing the South China Sea as it gains more strength…about 664 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Dec 18: 11.8°N 113.0°E @ 205 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • SUNDAY MORNING: Nears the eastern coastline of Vietnam as it starts to weaken while turning northward…about 719 km SSW of Hong Kong, China [8AM Dec 19: 16.9°N 110.5°E @ 130 kph]Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 955 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (870 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (720 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 140 km outward from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)


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Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone-bulletin-iframe)


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