TYPHOON ODETTE (RAI) ADVISORY NO. 08

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday, 17 December 2021
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Friday, 17 December 2021
Current Status & Outlook Typhoon ODETTE (RAI) has slowed down slightly as it emerges over the Panay Gulf…now moving towards the Sulu Sea, on its way to Northern Palawan.

24-hr Outlook: TY ODETTE (RAI) is forecast to weaken slightly, and will accelerate once again westward at  26 kph across the Sulu Sea this morning. The core of Odette will make its final landfall over Northern Palawan between 2 to 5 PM this afternoon, and will emerge over the West Philippine Sea tonight through early tomorrow.

The presence of this typhoon will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring cloudy skies with passing “on-and-off” rains with possible Severe Thunderstorms and gusty winds of 30-60 kph across the Eastern Sections of Northern & Central Luzon including CaLaBaRZon, Metro Manila, Bicol Region, Oriental Mindoro, & Marinduque – today.

Where is ODETTE (RAI)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 17…2100 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Over Panay Gulf (near 10.1°N 121.9°E)
  • Distance 1: 39 km south of Anini-y, Antique
  • Distance 2: 77 km west-northwest of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental
  • Distance 3: 288 km east-southeast of El Nido, Palawan
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 195 kph near the center…Gustiness: 240 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 22 kph, towards Sulu Sea-Northern Palawan Area.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)
  • Landfall 08:  Over Northern Palawan, between 2 to 5 PM today – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Panay, Mindoro, Palawan, Sulu Archipelago – Today.
  • Kalayaan Island Group – Tomorrow.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Southern Panay – Today.
  • Cuyo-Pamalican Area – Today.
  • Northern Palawan – Today.
  • Kalayaan Island Group – Tomorrow.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Visayas, Sulu Archipelago, & Northern Palawan including Calamian Group & Kalayaan Island Group.

+Waves of 3 to 5 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Prepares to make landfall along Northern Palawan, weakens slightly…about 131 km ENE of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 17: 10.4°N 119.9°E @ 185 kph]Forecast ConfidenceHIGH
  • SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Accelerates across the West Philippine Sea towards the Kalayaan Island Group…maintains its strength…about 212 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 18: 10.7°N 117.0°E @ 185 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves across the Kalayaan Island Group, intensifies slightly…about 515 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 18: 11.4°N 114.3°E @ 205 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Approaching the east coast of Vietnam as it weakens and turns northwestward…about 822 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 19: 12.5°N 111.7°E @ 195 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 950 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (795 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (720 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 165 km outward from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone-bulletin-iframe)

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