TYPHOON ODETTE (RAI) ADVISORY NO. 07

Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Friday, 17 December 2021
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday, 17 December 2021
Current Status & Outlook Typhoon ODETTE (RAI) has lost its Super Typhoon classification after it weakened rapidly while quickly crossing Northern Bohol and Cebu last night…now making landfall over Negros Oriental or in the vicinity of Guihulngan City.

24-hr Outlook: TY ODETTE (RAI) is forecast to weaken further, and will move westward at 24 kph across the Sulu Sea, and will make its final landfall over Northern Palawan late this afternoon. Later tonight, the typhoon will emerge over the West Philippine Sea as it heads toward the Kalayaan Island Group.

The presence of this typhoon will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring cloudy skies with passing “on-and-off” rains with possible Severe Thunderstorms and gusty winds of 30-60 kph across the Eastern Sections of Northern & Central Luzon including CaLaBaRZon, Metro Manila, Bicol Region, Oriental Mindoro, & Marinduque – today until tomorrow (Dec 17).

Where is ODETTE (RAI)? As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, December 16…1500 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: In the vicinity of Guihulngan City, Negros Oriental (near 10.1°N 123.1°E)
  • Distance 1: 31 km south-southwest of Canlaon City, Negros Oriental
  • Distance 2: 36 km south-southeast of La Carlota City, Negros Occidental
  • Distance 3: 62 km south-southeast of Bacolod City, Negros Occidental
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 195 kph near the center…Gustiness: 240 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 37 kph, towards Sulu Sea-Northern Palawan Area.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)
  • Landfall 07:  Over Northern Palawan, between 4 to 6 PM Today – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Visayas, Romblon, Bicol Region, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Zamboanga Del Norte – Today.
  • Mindoro, Palawan, Sulu Archipelago – Today until Saturday Morning (Dec 18).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Bohol, Cebu, Negros, & Southern Panay – Today.
  • Cuyo-Pamalican Area – Today.
  • Northern Palawan – beginning this afternoon until early Saturday morning (Dec 18).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Visayas, Sulu Archipelago, Southern Bicol, & MiMaRoPa.

+Waves of 3 to 5 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • FRIDAY MORNING: Over Sulu Sea, weakens to a Category 2 Typhoon as it moves westward…about 117 km WNW of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental [8AM Dec 17: 10.1°N 121.5°E @ 175 kph]Forecast ConfidenceHIGH
  • FRIDAY EVENING: Weakens further as it emerges over the West Coast of Northern Palawan, moving west towards the West Philippine Sea…about 63 km NNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Dec 17: 10.5°N 118.6°E @ 165 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • SATURDAY MORNING: Approaching the Kalayaan Island Group as it is about to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Re-intensifies slightly…about 336 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Dec 18: 11.0°N 115.9°E @ 175 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • SATURDAY EVENING: Approaching the east coast of Vietnam as it re-intensifies further while moving northwestward…about 640 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Dec 18: 12.0°N 113.3°E @ 195 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens back to Category 2 as it moves near the eastern coast of Vietnam…about 945 km SSW of Hong Kong, China [8PM Dec 19: 14.5°N 110.8°E @ 160 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 935 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (620 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (720 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 165 km outward from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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