SUPER TYPHOON ODETTE (RAI) ADVISORY NO. 06

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 16 December 2021
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Friday, 17 December 2021
Current Status & Outlook Super Typhoon ODETTE (RAI) has weakened after making landfall over the Islands of Siargao, Dinagat, and Panaon this afternoon…now approaching Macrohon-Maasin City Area in Southern Leyte.

24-hr Outlook: STY ODETTE (RAI) is forecast to weaken further while moving westward at 26 kph, and will make more major landfalls across Bohol (tonight), Cebu (late tonight or midnight), Negros (early tomorrow morning) and will be over the Sulu Sea by mid-morning tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon, Odette will be approaching eastern coast of Northern Palawan, with decreasing wind speeds of 185 kph (Category 3).

The presence of this typhoon will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring cloudy skies with passing “on-and-off” rains with possible Severe Thunderstorms and gusty winds of 30-60 kph across the Eastern Sections of Northern & Central Luzon including CaLaBaRZon, Metro Manila, Bicol Region, Oriental Mindoro, & Marinduque – today until tomorrow (Dec 17).

Where is ODETTE (RAI)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 16…0900 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Over Sugod Bay, Southern Leyte (near 10.0°N 125.1°E)
  • Distance 1: 34 km east-southeast of Maasin City, Leyte
  • Distance 2: 139 km east-southeast of Tagbilaran City, Bohol
  • Distance 3: 124 km east-southeast of Lapu-Lapu City, Cebu
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 240 kph near the center…Gustiness: 295 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 29 kph, towards Bohol-Cebu-Negros Area.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)
  • Landfall 03:  Over Maasin, Leyte Area between 5 to 7 PM Today – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
  • Landfall 04:  Over Bohol between 7 to 10 PM Today – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
  • Landfall 05:  Over Southern-Central Cebu Area, between 11 PM Today to 12 AM Tomorrow, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
  • Landfall 06:  Over Central-Southern Negros Area, between 12 to 4 AM Tomorrow, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
  • Landfall 07:  Over Northern Palawan, between 3 to 6 PM Tomorrow, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Visayas, Romblon, Bicol Region, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Zamboanga Del Norte – Today until Tomorrow Evening.
  • Mindoro, Palawan, Sulu Archipelago – beginning tomorrow until Saturday Morning (Dec 18).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Agusan Del Norte, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin Island, Surigao Provinces, Siargao, Dinagat, Southern Leyte – tonight.
  • Bohol, Cebu, Negros, & Southern Panay – tonight until tomorrow morning (Dec 17).
  • Cuyo-Pamalican Area – beginning tomorrow morning until early evening.
  • Northern Palawan – beginning tomorrow afternoon until early Saturday morning (Dec 18).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Eastern and Northern Mindanao, Visayas, Sulu Archipelago, Southern Bicol, & MiMaRoPa.

+Waves of 3 to 5 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Kabankalan City, Negros Occidental, weakens to a Category 3 Typhoon…about 11 km SSE of Himamaylan City, Negros Occidental [2AM Dec 17: 10.0°N 122.9°E @ 205 kph]Forecast ConfidenceHIGH
  • FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens further as it approaches Northern Palawan…about 152 km ENE of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 17: 10.4°N 120.1°E @ 185 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Over the West Philippine Sea, weakens to a Category 2 Typhoon as it moves WNW…about 197 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 18: 10.8°N 117.2°E @ 175 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), re-intensifies back to Category 3…about 482 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 18: 11.6°N 114.7°E @ 195 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens back to Category 2 as it nears the eastern coast of Vietnam, starts to recurve…about 938 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 19: 13.8°N 111.1°E @ 165 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 915 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (750 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (720 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 165 km outward from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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