Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 15 December 2021
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday, 16 December 2021
Current Status & Outlook ODETTE (RAI) has strengthened into a Typhoon (TY) as it tracks westward across the Philippine Sea…remains a serious threat to Caraga & Visayas Regions.

24-hr Outlook: TY ODETTE (RAI) is forecast to move WNW at 22 kph across the northwesternmost portion of the South Philippine Sea, and will make landfall to Siargao-Dinagat Islands by late tomorrow afternoon.  Its forecasted wind speed will be about 165 kph (Category 2 Typhoon).

The presence of this typhoon will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring cloudy skies with passing “on-and-off” rains with possible Severe Thunderstorms and gusty winds of 30-60 kph across the Eastern Sections of Northern & Central Luzon including CaLaBaRZon, Metro Manila, Bicol Region, Oriental Mindoro, & Marinduque – beginning tomorrow through Friday (Dec 17).

Where is ODETTE (RAI)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 15…0900 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the northern part of the South Philippine Sea (near 9.2°N 130.4°E)
  • Distance 1: 539 km east of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte
  • Distance 2: 483 km east of Siargao Island, Surigao Del Norte
  • Distance 3: 619 km east of Maasin City, Southern Leyte
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 130 kph near the center…Gustiness: 160 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 20 kph, across the Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)
  • Landfall 01:  Over Siargao-Dinagat Islands, between 3 to 5 PM Tomorrow – with High Strike Probability of >90%. 
  • Landfall 02:  Over Southern Leyte, between 6 to 9 PM Tomorrow – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
  • Landfall 03:  Over Bohol between 10 PM Tomorrow to 12 AM Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
  • Landfall 04:  Over Central Cebu, between 1 to 3 AM Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
  • Landfall 05:  Over Central Negros, between 4 to 6 AM Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
  • Landfall 06:  Over Northern Palawan, between 8 to 10 PM  Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Visayas, Romblon, Bicol Region, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Zamboanga Del Norte – beginning Thursday (Dec 16) until Friday Evening (Dec 17).
  • Mindoro, Palawan, Sulu Archipelago – beginning Friday (Dec 17) until Saturday Afternoon (Dec 18).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Surigao Del Norte, Siargao, Dinagat, Southern Tip of Samar, Leyte – beginning Tomorrow Afternoon until Evening (Dec 16).
  • Bohol, Cebu, Negros, Central & Southern Panay – beginning Late Tomorrow Evening until Fri Noon (Dec 17).
  • Cuyo-Pamalican Area – beginning Friday Morning until Evening (Dec 17).
  • Northern Palawan including Calamian Group – beginning Friday Afternoon (Dec 17) until Early Saturday Morning (Dec 18).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Eastern and Northern Mindanao, Visayas, Sulu Archipelago, Southern Bicol, & MiMaRoPa.

+Waves of 3-5 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Just along the coastal areas of Siargao Island as it intensifies into a Category 2 Typhoon…about 94 km ENE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte [2PM Dec 16: 10.1°N 126.3°E @ 165 kph]Forecast ConfidenceHIGH
  • FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Over Central Cebu, weakens to Category 1 Typhoon…about 31 km SW of Talisay City, Cebu [2AM Dec 17: 10.1°N 123.6°E @ 150 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Over the Northern Part of Sulu Archipelago, re-intensifies back to Category 2…about 51 km SSE of Cuyo Island, Palawan [2PM Dec 17: 10.4°N 121.1°E @ 160 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Over the West Philippine Sea as it is about to exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), strengthens further…373 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 18: 11.6°N 115.8°E @ 175 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 975 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (765 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (720 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 100 km outward from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)


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Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone-bulletin-iframe)


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