SEVERE TROPICAL STORM ODETTE (RAI) ADVISORY NO. 02

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 15 December 2021
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 15 December 2021
Current Status & Outlook Severe Tropical Storm ODETTE (RAI) maintains its intensification trend while moving westward across the Philippine Sea…expected to become a Category 1 Typhoon today as it seriously threatens Visayas & Caraga Regions.

24-hr Outlook: STS ODETTE (RAI) is forecast to maintain its WNW track across the northernmost portion of the South Philippine Sea through early Thursday morning with a forward speed of 21 kph.  Forecast wind speed is expected to increase to 150 kph.

Where is ODETTE (RAI)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 15…2100 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the northeastern portion of the South Philippine Sea (near 8.8°N 132.8°E)
  • Distance 1: 719 km east of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur
  • Distance 2: 751 km east of Siargao Island, Surigao Del Norte
  • Distance 3: 887 km east of Maasin City, Southern Leyte
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 110 kph near the center…Gustiness: 140 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 20 kph, across the Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)
  • Landfall 01:  Over Dinagat Island, between 5 to 6 PM Tomorrow – with High Strike Probability of >90%. 
  • Landfall 02:  Over Southern Leyte, between 6 to 8 PM Tomorrow – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
  • Landfall 03:  Over Metro Cebu, between 11 PM Tomorrow to 1 AM Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
  • Landfall 04:  Over Central -Northern Negros, between 2 to 3 AM Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
  • Landfall 05:  Over Guimaras-Southern Tip of Panay, between 4 to 8 AM Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
  • Landfall 06:  Over Roxas-El Nido Area, Palawan, between 7 to 9 PM  Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Visayas, Romblon, Bicol Region, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Zamboanga Del Norte – beginning Thursday (Dec 16) until Friday Evening (Dec 17).
  • Mindoro, Palawan, Sulu Archipelago – beginning Friday (Dec 17) until Saturday Evening (Dec 18).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Surigao Del Norte, Siargao, Dinagat, Southern Tip of Samar, Leyte – beginning Tomorrow Afternoon until Evening (Dec 16).
  • Bohol, Cebu, Negros, Central & Southern Panay – beginning Tomorrow Evening until Fri Morning (Dec 17).
  • Cuyo-Pamalican Area – beginning Friday Morning until Evening (Dec 17).
  • Northern Palawan including Calamian Group – beginning Friday Afternoon (Dec 17) until Early Saturday Morning (Dec 18).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Eastern and Northern Mindanao, Visayas, Sulu Archipelago, Southern Bicol, & MiMaRoPa.

+Waves of 3-5 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Category 1 Typhoon while moving WNW across the northern portion of the South Philippine Sea…about 308 km ENE of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur [2AM Dec 16: 9.7°N 128.9°E @ 150 kph]Forecast ConfidenceHIGH
  • FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Negros Occidental as a Category 2 Typhoon while moving westward…about 13 km ENE of Canlaon City, Negros Oriental [2AM Dec 17: 10.4°N 123.3°E @ 160 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Just along the west coast of Northern Palawan, intensifies further as it heads over the West Philippine Sea…about 104 km NW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 18: 10.7°N 118.2°E @ 165 kph]Forecast ConfidenceMEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (760 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (495 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 160 km outward from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone-bulletin-iframe)

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