SEVERE TROPICAL STORM ODETTE (RAI) ADVISORY NO. 01

Issued at: 8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Tuesday, 14 December 2021
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 15 December 2021
Current Status & Outlook Tropical Storm (TS) RAI has intensified into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…now named domestically by PAGASA as “ODETTE”, the 15th Tropical Cyclone of 2021. This storm now pose a serious threat to Caraga and Visayas.

24-hr Outlook: STS ODETTE (RAI) is forecast to maintain its WNW track across the northeastern portion of the South Philippine Sea through tomorrow, Wednesday afternoon with a decreased forward speed of 19 kph.  It is expected to become a Typhoon by early tomorrow morning.

Where is ODETTE (RAI)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 14…0900 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the easternmost portion of the South Philippine Sea (near 8.1°N 135.0°E)
  • Distance 1: 959 km east of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur
  • Distance 2: 1,003 km east of Siargao Island, Surigao Del Norte
  • Distance 3: 1,140 km east of Maasin City, Southern Leyte
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 25 kph, across the Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)
  • Landfall 01:  Over Siargao Island, between 8 to 9 PM Thu, Dec 16 – with High Strike Probability of 80-90%. 
  • Landfall 02:  Over Dinagat Island, between 10 to 11 PM Thu, Dec 16 – with High Strike Probability of 80-90%. 
  • Landfall 03:  Over Southern Leyte, between 1 to 2 AM Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
  • Landfall 04:  Over Metro Cebu, between 7 to 8 AM Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
  • Landfall 05:  Over Central Negros, between 10 to 11 AM Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
  • Landfall 06:  Over Guimaras, between 12 to 1 PM Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
  • Landfall 07:  Over El Nido, Palawan, between 4 to 5 AM  Sat, Dec 18 – with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Visayas, Romblon, Bicol Region, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Zamboanga Del Norte – beginning Thursday (Dec 16) until Friday Evening (Dec 17).
  • Mindoro, Palawan, Sulu Archipelago – beginning Friday (Dec 17) until Saturday Evening (Dec 18).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Typhoon while moving WNW across the northern portion of the South Philippine Sea…about 594 km E of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur [2PM Dec 15: 9.2°N 131.6°E @ 150 kph]Forecast ConfidenceHIGH
  • THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching Siargao-Dinagat Islands, strengthens into a Category 3 Typhoon…about 128 km E of Siargao Island, Surigao Del Norte [2PM Dec 16: 10.0°N 127.2°E @ 185 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Just along the southern coast of Panay, weakens to a Category 1 Typhoon after crossing the Cebu and Negros Islands…about 38 km SW of Iloilo City, Iloilo [2PM Dec 17: 10.5°N 122.3°E @ 150 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (955 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (495 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 45 km outward from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

:: NONE


Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone-bulletin-iframe)

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