TROPICAL STORM RAI STORMWATCH NO. 02

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday, 13 December 2021
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday, 14 December 2021
Current Status and Outlook

The Tropical Depression (TD) over Western Micronesia has strengthened into a Tropical Storm. (TS), and is now named internationally as “RAI” – known as the Stone money of Yap State. Contributed by Micronesia. The storm is currently moving towards the Philippine Sea.

TS RAI is forecast to continue intensifying within the next 24 hours, becoming a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) by tomorrow afternoon.  It will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by late tomorrow evening (Dec 14), and may traverse Northern Caraga-Visayas-Palawan Area on Thursday evening through Saturday morning (Dec 16-18) as a potentially dangerous Typhoon.

Where is TS RAI? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 13…0900 GMT:

  • Location of Center: Over the southern portion of Western Micronesia (near 5.5°N 140.5°E)
  • Distance 1: 609 km east of PAR
  • Distance 2: 691 km east-southeast of Koror, Palau
  • Distance 3: 1,589 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 18 kph, towards the Western Micronesia.
Forecast Highlights
  • Since this storm is still outside of PAR and far away from the Philippine Landmass, the initial effects from this system is likely to occur beginning Wednesday evening (Dec 15) or Thursday morning (Dec 16).
  • This tropical cyclone will be named domestically as “Odette” once it enters PAR on Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning.  
  • Entrance to PAR:  Tomorrow Evening or Early Wednesday Morning.
  • Possible Major Landfall Areas (with 80-90% Strike Probabilities):
    (1) Surigao Del Norte-Siargao-Dinagat-Southern Leyte – Late Thursday Evening, Dec 16;
    (2) Bohol-Cebu – Friday Morning, Dec 17;
    (3) Negros Provinces – Friday Noon or Afternoon;
    (4) Cuyo Island – Early Saturday Morning, Dec 18;
    (5) Northern Palawan – Saturday Morning.
  • The storm’s Forecast Track Confidence during landfall is currently at MEDIUM.
  • Forecast to Exit PAR:  Sunday, Dec. 19.
This StormWatch is valid for the next 24 hours. 

Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

 

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