TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) MAYMAY STORMWATCH NO. 01

Issued at: 12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Tuesday, 11 October 2022
Next update: 12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Wednesday, 12 October 2022
Current Status and Outlook

A slow-moving Tropical Disturbance (LPA) near the coastal waters of Aurora is enhancing the first surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) across Extreme Northern Luzon.  This disturbance is currently struggling to organize due to an unfavorable atmospheric wind environment. The Global Typhoon Models (GTM) continues to show little development on this system with complete dissipation in 48 hours. Meanwhile, PAGASA has upgraded this system into a Tropical Depression with the local name “MAYMAY”.  

Occasional rains and thunderstorms with gale-force winds reaching 60 kph will be expected across the monsoon affected areas of Extreme Northern Luzon. For updates on PAGASA Wind Signals see graphic at the bottom of this StormWatch.

Where is LPA MAYMAY? As of 8:00 AM PhT Today, October 11…0000 GMT:

  • Location of Center: Along the northwestern portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.1°N 124.7°E)
  • Distance 1: 282 km east of Casiguran, Aurora
  • Distance 2: 235 km north-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes
  • Distance 3: 265  km east-southeast of Palanan, Isabela
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 50 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 07 kph, across the Central Philippine Sea.
Forecast Highlights
  • Global Typhoon Models continue to show little or no development of this disturbance through the next 24 to 36 hours.
  • No direct effects will be expected from this storm through the next 24 hours.
  • Indirect effects due to the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will continue to bring rainy & windy weather along Extreme Northern Luzon (with winds of 15-30 kph inland, and 30-70 kph over coastal areas and at sea). The seas around these areas particularly along the Balintang and Bashi Channels or over Luzon Strait will be rough and dangerous to sea crafts and fishing vessels. 
  • This disturbance is forecast to dissipate along the coastal waters of Northern Quezon within the next 24 to 48 hours.
  • This system will be closely monitored for any abrupt changes that may happen within the circulation.
This StormWatch is valid for the next 24 hours.

Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

 

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL



Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin)

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