Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday, 12 October 2021
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Tuesday, 12 October 2021
Current Status & Outlook Severe Tropical Storm MARING (KOMPASU) has emerged over the West Philippine Sea while maintaining its westerly track and strength during the past 6 hours…expected to move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon.

24-hr Outlook: STS MARING (KOMPASU) is forecast to maintain its westerly course at a speed of 24 km/hr, and will intensify slightly. The core of STS MARING is expected to move into the South China Sea tonight and will be approaching the coastal waters of Hainan Island by tomorrow afternoon (Oct 13). 

The presence of this large Tropical Cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) bringing cloudy skies with passing “on-and-off” monsoon rains with possible Severe Thunderstorms and gusty winds of 30-60 kph across Central & Southern Luzon including Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas, & Western Mindanao today. The effect of this monsoon weather will be more frequent along the western sections with rough seas across the archipelago.

Where is MARING (KOMPASU)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 12…2100 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the northwestern coastal waters of Ilocos Norte (near 18.8°N 119.9°E)
  • Distance 1: 100 km northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
  • Distance 2: 145 km north-northwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
  • Distance 3: 490 km north-northwest of Metro Manila
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 20 kph, towards the South China Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • None
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Northern Luzon & Portions of Central Luzon – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 1 to 2 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Traversing the northern part of the South China Sea with decreasing wind intensity as it maintains its westerly movement…about 573 km W of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2AM Oct 13: 18.8°N 115.2°E @ 100 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Makes landfall over Hainan Island, China as it weakens quickly into a minimal Tropical Storm (TS)…about 615 km SW of Hong Kong, China [2AM Oct 14: 18.8°N 109.6°E @ 65 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 975 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Large (1,340 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Very Large (1,700 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 150 km outward from the center.
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)


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