Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Tuesday, 12 October 2021
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday, 12 October 2021
Current Status & Outlook Severe Tropical Storm MARING (KOMPASU) is now moving along the coastal waters of Ilocos Norte, after making a minor landfall over Fuga Island, Cagayan…strengthens slightly as it moves west towards the West Philippine Sea.

24-hr Outlook: STS MARING (KOMPASU) is forecast to maintain its westerly course at a speed of 26 km/hr, and could still intensify slightly. The core of STS MARING is expected to move out of the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later this morning, between 9-11 AM

The presence of this large Tropical Cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) bringing cloudy skies with passing “on-and-off” monsoon rains with possible Severe Thunderstorms and gusty winds of 30-60 kph across Central & Southern Luzon including Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas, & Mindanao today. The effect of this monsoon weather will be more frequent along the western sections with rough seas across the archipelago.

Where is MARING (KOMPASU)? As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, October 11…1500 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the northern coastal waters of Ilocos Norte (near 18.9°N 120.9°E)
  • Distance 1: 36 km north-northeast of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
  • Distance 2: 84 km northeast of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
  • Distance 3: 487 km north of Metro Manila
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 26 kph, towards the West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • None
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Northern Luzon & Portions of Central Luzon – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Southern Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Northern Cagayan, Ilocos Norte – Today.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Ilocos Norte, Northern Cagayan, & Babuyan Group of Islands.

+Waves of 1 to 2 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • TUESDAY EVENING: Nearing Typhoon classification as it moves westward across the northern part of the South China Sea (outside of PAR)…about 501 km W of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8PM Oct 12: 18.9°N 115.9°E @ 110 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • WEDNESDAY EVENING: Makes landfall over Hainan Island, China as it weakens slightly while maintaining its westerly track…about 568 km SW of Hong Kong, China [8PM Oct 13: 18.9°N 110.1°E @ 95 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • THURSDAY EVENING: Makes landfall over Vinh, Northern Vietnam…weakens into a minimal Tropical Storm (TS)…about 280 km S of Hanoi, Vienam [8PM Oct 14: 18.5°N 105.7°E @ 65 kph]Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Very Large (1,920 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Very Large (1,700 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 35 km outward from the center.
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)


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