Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Monday, 11 October 2021
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday, 11 October 2021
Current Status & Outlook MARING (KOMPASU) becomes a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it slows down slightly while approaching Extreme Northern Luzon.  Its western and southern rainbands now spreading across Northern Luzon bringing stormy weather over the area. This large storm has a wide swath of 55-kph winds with a radius extending up to 900 km from the center. Therefore, windy conditions can be felt as far as Okinawa to the north, and Bicol Region to the south.

24-hr Outlook: STS MARING (KOMPASU) is forecast to accelerate while maintaining its westerly course at a speed of 25 km/hr, and could intensify further. The core of STS MARING is expected to traverse Luzon Strait tonight, passing along the Babuyan Islands (between 6 to 11 PM), and will emerge along the northern portion of the West Philippine Sea, exiting the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow morning

The presence of this large Tropical Cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) bringing cloudy skies with passing “on-and-off” monsoon rains with possible Severe Thunderstorms and gusty winds of 30-60 kph across Central & Southern Luzon including Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas, & Mindanao today through tomorrow (Oct 12). The effect of this monsoon weather will be more frequent along the western sections with rough seas across the archipelago.

Where is MARING (KOMPASU)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 11…0300 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the southeastern portion of the Balintang Channel (near 18.6°N 123.6°E)
  • Distance 1: 153 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan
  • Distance 2: 208 km east of Aparri, Cagayan
  • Distance 3: 523 km north-northeast of Metro Manila
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 95 kph near the center…Gustiness: 120 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 16 kph, towards the Northern Cagayan-Batanes Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • No major landfall expected…just minor landfalls, along the Babuyan Islands between 6-11 PM tonight (Oct 11) – with high strike probability of more than 90%.  However, if the forecast track will dip more to the south, a major landfall could occur along the coastal areas of Northern Cagayan.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Northern Luzon – Today until Tomorrow (Oct 12).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Southern Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Northern Cagayan – Today until early Tomorrow (Oct 12).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • TUESDAY MORNING: Nearing Typhoon classification as it is about to exit the northwestern border of the PAR, while moving westward…about 207 km WNW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8AM Oct 12: 18.7°N 118.7°E @ 110 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • WEDNESDAY MORNING: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) while outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…maintains its fast, westerly track across the northern part of the South China Sea, as it approaches Hainan Island, China…about 426 km SSW of Hong Kong, China [8AM Oct 13: 18.8°N 112.7°E @ 120 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • THURSDAY MORNING: Emerges over the Gulf of Tonkin after making landfall over Southern Hainan (China)…weakens into an STS…about 814 km WSW of Hong Kong, China [8AM Oct 14: 18.8°N 107.3°E @ 100 kph]Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Very Large (1,605 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Very Large (1,800 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 25 km outward from the center.
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)


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