Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday, 11 October 2021
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Monday, 11 October 2021
Current Status & Outlook Tropical Storm MARING (KOMPASU) remains a very large system as it moves quickly towards Extreme Northern Luzon…endangering Cagayan Valley including the Batanes & Babuyan Group of Islands.  Its western and southern rainbands is expected to spread today across Northern & Central Luzon, with 55-kph wind radius extending up to 900 km from the center.

24-hr Outlook: TS MARING (KOMPASU) is forecast to slow down while maintaining its westerly course at a speed of 20 km/hr, becoming a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) later today. The core of TS MARING is expected to traverse Luzon Strait tonight, passing along the Babuyan Islands (between 6 to 11 PM), and will emerge along the northern portion of the West Philippine Sea. 

The presence of this large Tropical Cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) bringing cloudy skies with passing “on-and-off” monsoon rains with possible Severe Thunderstorms and gusty winds of 30-60 kph across Central & Southern Luzon including Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas, & Mindanao today through tomorrow (Oct 12). The effect of this monsoon weather will be more frequent along the western sections with rough seas across the archipelago.

Where is MARING (KOMPASU)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 11…2300 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the easternmost part of the Balintang Channel (near 18.8°N 124.4°E)
  • Distance 1: 239 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan
  • Distance 2: 295 km east of Aparri, Cagayan
  • Distance 3: 589 km northeast of Metro Manila
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 32 kph, towards the Northern Cagayan-Batanes Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • No major landfall expected…just minor landfalls, along the Babuyan Islands between 6-11 PM tonight (Oct 11).
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Northern Luzon – Today until Tomorrow (Oct 12).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Southern Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Northern Cagayan – beginning this afternoon until early tomorrow morning (Oct 12).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Nearing Typhoon classification as it quickly traverse Luzon Strait, emerging along the northern part of the West Philippine Sea…about 64 km NW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [2AM Oct 12: 19.0°N 120.4°E @ 110 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) while outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…maintains its fast, westerly track across the northern part of the South China Sea…about 400 km S of Hong Kong, China [2AM Oct 13: 18.8°N 114.2°E @ 130 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges over the Gulf of Tonkin after making landfall over Southern Hainan (China)…weakens into an STS…about 772 km WSW of Hong Kong, China [2AM Oct 14: 18.6°N 107.9°E @ 110 kph]Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Very Large (1,670 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Very Large (1,800 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)


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