Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Monday, 11 October 2021
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday, 11 October 2021
Current Status & Outlook The broad Monsoon Depression over the Philippine Sea has transitioned into a warm-core Tropical Cyclone yesterday afternoon…now classified as a large Tropical Storm with the local name “MARING” (KOMPASU). The system has been accelerating closer to Extreme Northern Luzon, and is likely to cross the Balintang Channel or in the vicinity of the Babuyan Islands this Monday evening.

24-hr Outlook: TS MARING (KOMPASU) is forecast to turn sharply westward and traverse the Babuyan Islands later tonight between 6 to 11 PM with a forward speed of 21 km/hr, with winds increasing to Severe Tropical Storm (STS) classification…about 100 to 110 kph with higher gusts.

The presence of this large Tropical Cyclone will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring cloudy skies with passing “on-and-off” monsoon rains with possible Severe Thunderstorms and gusty winds of 30-60 kph across Central & Southern Luzon including Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas, & Mindanao. The effect of this monsoon weather will be more frequent along the western sections with rough seas across the archipelago.

Where is MARING (KOMPASU)? As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, October 10…1500 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the southwesternmost portion of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.6°N 126.0°E)
  • Distance 1: 405 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan
  • Distance 2: 483 km east of Calayan Island, Cagayan
  • Distance 3: 691 km northeast of Metro Manila
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 26 kph, towards the Northern Cagayan-Batanes Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • No major landfall expected…just minor landfalls, along the Babuyan Islands between 6-11 PM tonight (Oct 11).
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Northern Luzon – Today until Tomorrow (Oct 12).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Batanes & Babuyan Group of Islands, Northern Cagayan – beginning this afternoon until early tomorrow morning (Oct 12).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • MONDAY EVENING: Becomes an STS as it quickly traverse Luzon Strait, passing over the Babuyan Islands, turns Westward sharply…about 43 km SE of Calayan Island, Cagayan [8PM Oct 11: 19.1°N 121.8°E @ 100 kph]Forecast ConfidenceMEDIUM
  • TUESDAY EVENING: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) while outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…maintains its fast, westerly track across the northern part of the South China Sea…about 423 km SSE of Hong Kong, China [8PM Oct 12: 18.9N 115.7°E @ 120 kph]Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
  • WEDNESDAY EVENING: Weakens into an STS as it makes landfall over the southern part of Hainan Island (China)…about 678 km SW of Hong Kong, China [8PM Oct 13: 18.4N 109.2°E @ 95 kph]Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Very Large (1,840 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Very Large (1,800 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)


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