Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday, 12 September 2021
Current Status & Outlook Typhoon KIKO (CHANTHU) picking up speed as it moves across the East Taiwan Sea…weakening further into a Category 3 cyclone. Its core is expected to move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon. With this development, this is the Final Advisory on the tropical cyclone.

24-hr Outlook: TY KIKO (CHANTHU) is forecast to accelerate rapidly poleward for the next 24 hours, weakening to a Category 2 Typhoon. The decaying core of this typhoon will move along the offshore areas of Zhejiang Province, China tomorrow morning.

Meanwhile, the presence of this typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon Rains (Habagat) across Northern & Central Luzon including Batanes & Babuyan Island Group, and Occidental Mindoro today. Improving weather conditions will be expected early next week as the typhoon dies down over Shanghai, China.

Where is KIKO (CHANTHU)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, September 12…2100 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the northern part of the East Taiwan Sea (near 23.3°N 122.2°E)
  • Distance 1: 97 km southeast of Hualien, Taiwan
  • Distance 2: 281 km north of Itbayat, Batanes
  • Distance 3: 311 km north of Basco, Batanes
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 195 kph near the center…Gustiness: 240 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) North-Northeast @ 19 kph, towards Eastern China.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal Areas of Batanes & Babuyan Island Group. 

+Waves of 2 to 6 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving north along the East China Sea, approaching coastal areas of Zhejiang Province, China…weakens to a Category 2 TY…about 303 km NNE of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM Sept 13: 27.6°N 122.6°E @ 185 kph]. Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
  • TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns NNW to NW, making landfall Metropolitan Shanghai, China...weakens into a Category 1 TY…about 46 km W of Shanghai, China [2AM Sept 14: 31.3°N 121.0°E @ 150 kph]Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 935 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (345 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (670 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 150 km outward from the center.
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)


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