Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Saturday, 11 September 2021
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 11 September 2021
Current Status & Outlook Super Typhoon KIKO (CHANTHU) has made a direct hit over Sabtang and Batan Islands this morning, after its core (eye & eyewall) passed in between the two islands…and is now along the western coast of Itbayat Island. Damaging destructive winds with heavy to extreme rainfall and high storm surge will continue across these areas throughout the afternoon. 

24-hr Outlook: STY KIKO (CHANTHU) is forecast to turn northward to north-northeastward for the next 24 hours and will weaken to below STY classification (Category 4). The core (eye & eyewall) of this super typhoon will pass over or very close to Lanyu Island (Taiwan) late tonight, and will be over the coastal waters of Eastern Taiwan by early tomorrow morning. Stormy weather will prevail across Extreme Northern Luzon this afternoon through the evening.

Meanwhile, the presence of this tropical cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon Rains (Habagat) across Luzon including Occidental Mindoro, Romblon, Marinduque, Kalayaan Island Group, and Palawan this weekend.

Where is KIKO (CHANTHU)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, September 11…0300 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the western coast of Itbayat Island, Batanes (near 20.7°N 121.7°E)
  • Distance 1: 17 km west-southwest of Itbayat, Batanes
  • Distance 2: 38 km northwest of Basco, Batanes
  • Distance 3: 177 km southeast of Hengchun, Taiwan
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 250 kph near the center…Gustiness: 305 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) North-Northwest @ 18 kph, towards Eastern Taiwan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Northern Cagayan – continuing through the afternoon.
  • Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – continuing through the afternoon.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Batanes Island Group – continuing this afternoon.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal Areas of Extreme Northern Luzon – continuing until tonight. 

+Waves of 2 to 6 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • SUNDAY MORNING: Moving north to NNE. along the coastal waters of Eastern Taiwan…weakens to a Category 4 TY…about 299 km N of Basco, Batanes [8AM Sept 12: 23.2°N 122.1°E @ 215 kph]. Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • MONDAY MORNING: Already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it rapidly accelerates northward across the East China Sea, bearing down the coastal waters of Zhejiang Province, China…will be downgraded into a Category 2 TY…about 150 km E of Wenling, China [8AM Sept 13: 28.2°N 122.9°E @ 160 kph]Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 520 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 915 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (465 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (600 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 195 km outward from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)


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