SUPER TYPHOON KIKO (CHANTHU) ADVISORY NO. 07

Issued at: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Saturday, 11 September 2021
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Saturday, 11 September 2021
Current Status & Outlook The eye of Super Typhoon KIKO (CHANTHU) is about to make “Islandfall” along Sabtang and Batan Islands within an hour or two as its core has started to deteriorate after reaching its peak 1-min sustained winds of 285 km/hr at around 2 AM (based on the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center data). Damaging catastrophic winds with heavy to extreme rainfall and high storm surge will continue to occur across the Batanes Island Group through the afternoon. 

24-hr Outlook: STY KIKO (CHANTHU) is forecast to turn northward to north-northeastward for the next 24 hours and will weaken to just below STY classification. The core (eye & eyewall) of this catastrophic super typhoon will pass over or very close to Itbayat, Batanes between 1 to 3 PM this afternoon, and will be over the coastal waters of Southeastern Taiwan or just east of Lanyu Island, Taiwan by early tomorrow morning. Stormy weather will prevail across Extreme Northern Luzon through early tomorrow morning.

Where is KIKO (CHANTHU)? As of 7:00 AM PhT today, September 11…2300 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the southern coastal waters of Sabtang and Batan Islands (near 20.1°N 122.0°E)
  • Distance 1: 44 km south of Basco, Batanes
  • Distance 2: 76 km south-southeast of Itbayat, Batanes
  • Distance 3: 548 km south of Taipei, Taiwan
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 260 kph near the center…Gustiness: 315 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) North-Northwest @ 17 kph, towards Batanes-Taiwan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • “Islandfall” is expected along SABTANG-BATAN ISLANDS (Batanes) between 8 to 10 AM this morning – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Northern Cagayan – now occurring.
  • Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – now occurring.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Coastal Areas of Northern Cagayan – now occurring.
  • Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – now occurring.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal Areas of Extreme Northern Luzon – now occurring. 

+Waves of 2 to 6 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns north to NNE as it moves along the coastal waters of Eastern Taiwan…weakens to a Category 4 TY…about 188 km N of Basco, Batanes [2AM Sept 12: 22.2°N 122.0°E @ 220 kph]. Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Rapidly accelerates northward across the East China Sea while weakening to a Category 2 TY…already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 253 km ESE of Wenzhou, China [2AM Sept 13: 27.0°N 123.0°E @ 175 kph]Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 510 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 905 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (465 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (445 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 155 km outward from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

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Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone-bulletin-iframe/)

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