Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 10 September 2021
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday, 11 September 2021
Current Status & Outlook Super Typhoon KIKO (CHANTHU) has rapidly intensified during the past 6 hours and is now an Extremely Catastrophic Category 5 Howler while passing along the coastal waters of Northern Cagayan. Its core is now endangering the province of Batanes particularly Batan Island, where its capital Basco is located. Its inner rainbands continues to spread across Cagayan and Isabela where occasional rains and gusty winds will be expected tonight. 

24-hr Outlook: STY KIKO (CHANTHU) is forecast to enter the eastern portion of the Balintang Channel tonight and will maintain its northwesterly track as it moves across the Eastern Babuyan Islands by early tomorrow morning. The core (eye & eyewall) of this catastrophic super typhoon will pass over or very close to Basco, Batanes between 6 to 10 AM tomorrow morning, and along Itbayat, Batanes between 12 to 4 PM. Damaging catastrophic winds with heavy to extreme rainfall and high storm surge are expected along these islands. STY KIKO is expected to weaken slightly by tomorrow afternoon.

Where is KIKO (CHANTHU)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, September 10…0900 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the eastern portion of the Balintang Channel, just east of Northern Cagayan (near 18.3°N 123.2°E)
  • Distance 1: 108 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
  • Distance 2: 211 km east-southeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan
  • Distance 3: 274 km south-southeast of Basco, Batanes
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 270 kph near the center…Gustiness: 325 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) North-Northwest @ 17 kph, towards Batanes-Taiwan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Possible “Islandfall” is expected along BATAN ISLAND (Batanes) between 6 to 10 AM tomorrow morning (Sept 11) – if it moves a little bit to the right of the forecast track. The Strike Probability remains High at >90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Northern Cagayan – now occurring.
  • Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – beginning Tonight.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Coastal Areas of Northern Cagayan – now occurring.
  • Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – beginning late Tonight.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal Areas of Extreme Northern Luzon – Today until Saturday Evening. 

+Waves of 2 to 6 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Along the northern part of the Batanes Group, as it traverses the Bashi Channel with decreased wind strength while turning North…about 62 km WNW of Basco, Batanes [2PM Sept 11: 20.8°N 121.5°E @ 230 kph]Forecast ConfidenceHIGH
  • SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Turns north to NNE as it moves along the coastal waters of Eastern Taiwan…weakens to a Category 3 TY…about 345 km N of Basco, Batanes [2PM Sept 12: 23.6°N 122.3°E @ 195 kph]Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
  • MONDAY AFTERNOON: Rapidly accelerates northward across the East China Sea while weakening to a Category 2 TY…already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 292 km SE of Shanghai, China [2PM Sept 13: 29.2°N 123.4°E @ 165 kph]Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 380 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 916 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (510 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (445 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 160 km outward from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)


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