TYPHOON KIKO (CHANTHU) ADVISORY NO. 04

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday, 10 September 2021
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Friday, 10 September 2021
Current Status & Outlook KIKO (CHANTHU) has lost its Super Typhoon (STY) Classification after weakening over the Philippine Sea during the past 12 hours, but remains a destructive Category 4 Typhoon (TY)…now moving closer to the offshore areas of Northern Cagayan. 

24-hr Outlook: TY KIKO (CHANTHU) is forecast to turn more to the northwest at a forward speed of 18 km/hr and will maintain its intensity but is still likely to re-intensify on or before passing over the Batanes Group. The core of the typhoon will pass over or very close to the town of Basco between 6 to 9 AM tomorrow morning. Damaging destructive winds with heavy rainfall and high storm surge are possible beginning early tomorrow morning.

Where is KIKO (CHANTHU)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, September 10…2100 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the northwesternmost part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.9°N 124.5°E)
  • Distance 1: 267 km east-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora
  • Distance 2: 301 km southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
  • Distance 3: 367 km north of Virac, Catanduanes
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 220 kph near the center…Gustiness: 270 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 20 kph, towards Batanes-Taiwan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Possible “Islandfall” is expected along BATAN ISLAND (Batanes) between 6 to 9 AM tomorrow morning (Sept 11) – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Northern Cagayan – beginning this Afternoon.
  • Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – beginning Tonight (Sept 11).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – beginning early morning Tomorrow (Sept 11).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal Areas of Extreme Northern Luzon – Today until Saturday Evening. 

+Waves of 2 to 6 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Eastern Balintang Channel, approaching the Bashi Channel & the Batanes Group with little change in strength and track…about 94 km SSE of Basco, Batanes [2AM Sept 11: 19.7°N 122.3°E @ 220 kph]Forecast ConfidenceHIGH
  • SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to turn north as it moves along the shoreline of Eastern Taiwan…weakens to a Category 3 TY…about 241 km NNW of Basco, Batanes [2AM Sept 12: 22.6°N 121.4°E @ 195 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to a Category 2 TY as it exits the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…moving northward across the East China Sea…about 633 km N of Basco, Batanes [2AM Sept 13: 26.2°N 122.4°E @ 160 kph]Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 935 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (445 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (330 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 125 km outward from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

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Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone-bulletin-iframe/2)

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