SUPER TYPHOON KIKO (CHANTHU) ADVISORY NO. 03

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 09 September 2021
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday, 10 September 2021
Current Status & Outlook Super Typhoon KIKO (CHANTHU) has weakened slightly as it turns west-northwestward across the Philippine Sea, heading towards Batanes-Taiwan Area. 

24-hr Outlook: STY KIKO (CHANTHU) is forecast to re-intensify slightly  and will maintain its west-northwest track across the Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 20 km/hr. The core (eye & eyewall) of this howler is expected to approach the coastal areas of Northern Cagayan by tomorrow afternoon.

Where is KIKO (CHANTHU)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, September 09…0900 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the northwestern portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.9°N 126.5°E)
  • Distance 1: 355 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
  • Distance 2: 528 km east of Baler, Aurora
  • Distance 3: 540 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 240 kph near the center…Gustiness: 295 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 19 kph, towards Batanes-Taiwan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • None
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Northern Cagayan – beginning Tomorrow Afternoon (Sept 10).
  • Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – beginning Saturday morning (Sept 11).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – beginning Saturday Morning (Sept 11).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal Areas of Extreme Northern Luzon – starting Tomorrow until Saturday Evening. 

+Waves of 2 to 6 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching the eastern offshore areas of Northern Cagayan as it intensifies slightly while moving WNW-ward…about 196 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM Sept 10: 17.8°N 123.9°E @ 250 kph]Forecast ConfidenceHIGH
  • SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to a Category 4 STY as it traverses the Balintang & Bashi Channels…passing over or very close to the Batanes Group…about 80 km NNW of Basco, Batanes [2PM Sept 11: 21.2°N 121.8°E @ 230 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • SUNDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Northern Taiwan as it is about to exit the NW border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…weakens to a Category 3 TY…about 469 km N of Basco, Batanes [2PM Sept 12: 24.7°N 121.4°E @ 185 kph]Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 935 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (535 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (330 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 75 km outward from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL



Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone-bulletin-iframe/2)

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