SUPER TYPHOON KIKO (CHANTHU) ADVISORY NO. 02

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday, 09 September 2021
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 09 September 2021
Current Status & Outlook Super Typhoon KIKO (CHANTHU) has turned westward during the past 6 hours and weakened slightly while its core undergoes an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC) as depicted on the latest CIMSS-MIMIC data run. This howler remains a serious threat to Cagayan and Batanes Provinces, and is likely to approach the area on Friday and Saturday.

24-hr Outlook: STY KIKO (CHANTHU) is forecast to re-intensify back to to Category 5 status upon the completion of its ERC…and will turn more west-northwestward across the Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 20 km/hr, with winds increasing back to 260 km/hr.

Where is KIKO (CHANTHU)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, September 09…2100 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the northern portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.5°N 128.6°E)
  • Distance 1: 522 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
  • Distance 2: 754 km east of Baler, Aurora
  • Distance 3: 757 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 250 kph near the center…Gustiness: 305 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 22 kph, across the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • None
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Extreme Northern Luzon – beginning Tomorrow Afternoon (Sept 10).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – beginning Saturday Morning (Sept 11).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal Areas of Extreme Northern Luzon – starting Tomorrow Morning until Saturday Evening. 

+Waves of 2 to 6 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns WNW as it regains Category 5 status while moving across the NW portion of the Central Philippines Sea…about 356 km E of Casiguran, Aurora [2AM Sept 10: 16.8°N 125.4°E @ 260 kph]Forecast ConfidenceHIGH
  • SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to a Category 4 STY as it traverses the Balintang Channel…passing along the Babuyan Island Group…about 111 km S of Basco, Batanes [2AM Sept 11: 19.5N 122.0°E @ 240 kph]Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
  • SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the NW border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while passing very close to the SW Coast of Taiwan…weakens to a Category 3 TY…about 273 km NW of Basco, Batanes [2AM Sept 12: 22.1N 120.0°E @ 195 kph]Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 935 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (460 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (330 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 50 km outward from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL



Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone-bulletin-iframe/2)

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