SUPER TYPHOON KIKO (CHANTHU) ADVISORY NO. 01

Issued at: 8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Wednesday, 08 September 2021
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday, 09 September 2021
Current Status & Outlook The rapidly intensifying Typhoon over the Philippine Sea which entered the eastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) last night – has been upgraded into an Extremely Catastrophic (Category 5) Super Typhoon with local name “KIKO.” This powerful howler is now posing a serious threat to Cagayan-Batanes Area, with possible approach on the area this Friday.

24-hr Outlook: STY KIKO (CHANTHU) is forecast to undergo an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC), where a temporary weakening phase is likely through the next 24 hours…and will move west to west-northwestward across the Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 20 km/hr, with winds dropping to below STY classification (Cat 4).

Where is KIKO (CHANTHU)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, September 08…0900 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the northern portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.6°N 130.8°E)
  • Distance 1: 745 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
  • Distance 2: 974 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
  • Distance 3: 986 km east of Baler, Aurora
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 260 kph near the center…Gustiness: 315 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Southwest @ 19 kph, across the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • None
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens below STY classification as its core undergoes an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC) while over the Philippine Sea, turns WNW…about 557 km E of Casiguran, Aurora [2PM Sept 09: 15.9°N 127.3°E @ 220 kph]Forecast ConfidenceHIGH
  • FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Regains STY classification as it moves along the northern coast of Cagayan…moving WNW towards Calayan-Babuyan Island Group…about 67 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM Sept 10: 18.3N 122.8°E @ 240 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • SATURDAY AFTERNOON: No longer an STY as it exits the NW border of the PAR while moving on a NW track…about 209 km W of Basco, Batanes [2PM Sept 11: 20.4N 120.0°E @ 230 kph]Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 940 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (455 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (440 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 50 km outward from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL



Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone-bulletin-iframe)

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