Issued at: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Monday, 26 September 2022
Next update: 8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Monday, 26 September 2022
Current Status & Outlook Typhoon KARDING [NORU] has emerged over the West Philippine Sea as it moved west-northwestward during the past 6 hours…now well to the west of Pangasinan while weakening to Category 2. Its eastern outer rainbands will continue to affect the provinces of La Union, Benguet, Pangasinan, Zambales, Tarlac, Pampanga, & Bataan.

24-hr Outlook: KARDING is forecast to weaken into a Category 1 Typhoon and resume its westerly course at a forward speed of 24 km/hr towards the South China Sea. The core of this typhoon will pass just to the north of Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal later this morning, before moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight. It is therefore expected to re-intensify back to Category 2 tomorrow morning (Sept 27).

Meanwhile, this typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) bringing scattered to occasional rains and thunderstorms across CaLaBaRZon, Metro Manila, Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa, Kalayaan Island Group, Sulu Archipelago, Western Visayas and Western Mindanao today through tomorrow, Tuesday (Sept 27).

Where is KARDING (NORU)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, September 26…2100 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Over the West Philippine Sea (near 15.8°N 119.1°E)
  • Distance 1: 102 km west-southwest of Alaminos, Pangasinan
  • Distance 2: 135 km west of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
  • Distance 3: 251 km west-northwest of Metro Manila
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 165 kph near the center…Gustiness: 205 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 24 kph, across the West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)
  • None
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Zambales & Pangasinan.

+Waves of 2 to 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while re-intensifying back to Category 2 over the West Philippine Sea…about 609 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2AM Sept 27: 15.8°N 114.3°E @ 165 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH 
  • WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: About to make landfall over the Eastern Coast of Vietnam, becomes a Category 3 Typhoon while maintaining its westward track…about 898 km SSW of Hong Kong, China [8AM Sept 28: 15.6°N 109.5°E @ 195 kph]Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 968 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (250 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (330 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  75 km outward from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2k)


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Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin)


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