TYPHOON KARDING (NORU) ADVISORY NO. 11

Issued at: 2:00 AM PhT (18:00 GMT) Monday, 26 September 2022
Next update: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Monday, 26 September 2022
Current Status & Outlook Typhoon KARDING [NORU] has weakened further while crossing the landmass of Central Luzon…now approaching Zambales Mountain Range as it departs Tarlac City.  The core (eye + eyewall) is expected to emerge over the West Philippine Sea within the next few hours. 

24-hr Outlook: TY KARDING is forecast to resume its westerly course at a decreased forward speed of 22 km/hr. The core of this typhoon will pass just to the north of Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal around noontime today, before moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later this evening.

Meanwhile, this typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) bringing scattered to occasional rains and thunderstorms across CaLaBaRZon, Metro Manila, Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa, Kalayaan Island Group, Sulu Archipelago, Western Visayas and Western Mindanao today through tomorrow, Tuesday (Sept 27).

Where is KARDING (NORU)? As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, September 25…1500 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: In the vicinity of San Jose, Tarlac (near 15.5°N 120.4°E)
  • Distance 1: 21 km west of Tarlac City, Tarlac
  • Distance 2: 44 km north-northwest of Angeles City, Pampanga
  • Distance 3: 125 km northwest of Metro Manila
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 185 kph near the center…Gustiness: 230 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 30 kph, towards Zambales & The West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)
  • N/A. System now over land.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Central Luzon (including Metro Manila) & the Southern Portions of Northern Luzon – today until 8AM.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Tarlac & Zambales  – today until 5AM.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Western Luzon.

+Waves of 2 to 6 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • MONDAY EVENING: Exits the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while re-intensifying over the West Philippine Sea…about 428 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8PM Sept 26: 15.8°N 116.0°E @ 140 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH 
  • TUESDAY EVENING: Re-intensifies back to Category 3 status while moving westward across the South China Sea, approaching the eastern coast of. Vietnam…about 828 km SSW of Hong Kong, China [8PM Sept 27: 15.6°N 110.9°E @ 185 kph]Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 220 mm [Light to Heavy]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 950 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (280 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (440 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  60 km outward from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2k)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL



Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin)

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