Issued at: 8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Sunday, 25 September 2022
Next update: 2:00 AM PhT (18:00 GMT) Monday, 26 September 2022
Current Status & Outlook Super Typhoon KARDING [NORU] has been downgraded to a Category 4 Typhoon (TY) after passing along the northern coastal waters of Polillo Island Group…now inching closer to the coastal waters of Dingalan Bay in Southern Aurora.  The core (eye + eyewall) is about to make landfall along the Boundary of Aurora and Quezon/Dingalan Bay (or somewhere between the towns of General Nakar and Dingalan) between 7 to 9 PM tonight. 

Residents living along the path of this howler must be fully prepared as the core is expected to begin crossing Central Luzon tonight. Please take all necessary precautions. 

24-hr Outlook: TY KARDING is forecast to weaken further as it turns west-northwestward at an accelerated forward speed of 24 km/hr. The core (eye + eyewall) of this howler will start to cross the provinces of Central Luzon via Nueva Ecija, Northern Bulacan, Northern Pampanga, Tarlac, & Zambales tonight through early tomorrow morning. At around 2AM tomorrow morning, KARDING is forecast to be in the vicinity of  Zambales Mountains, near Masinloc and will then emerge over the West Philippine Sea with decreased winds of 160 kph (Category 2). Meanwhile, Metro Manila and the rest of CaLaBaRZon will be under the typhoon’s inner bands, where gusty winds of 75 to 100 km/hr will be expected during its closest approach to the area tonight (approx. 8-11PM). 

Meanwhile, this typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas and Western Mindanao beginning tonight through tomorrow (Sept 26).

Where is KARDING (NORU)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, September 25…0900 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the northern coastal waters of Polillo Island Group (near 15.1°N 122.0°E)
  • Distance 1: 55 km northeast of Infanta, Quezon
  • Distance 2: 118 km east-southeast of Cabanatuan City, Nueva Ecija
  • Distance 3: 117 km east-northeast of Metro Manila
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 220 kph near the center…Gustiness: 280 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 18 kph, towards Southern Aurora & Central Luzon.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)
  • Somewhere along the Towns of Dingalan (Aurora) & General Nakar (Quezon) – between 7 to 9 PM tonight with High Strike Probability of >90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Central Luzon (including Metro Manila) & the Southern Portions of Northern Luzon – today until 8AM tomorrow (Sept 26).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Southern Aurora & Northern Quezon (including Polillo Island Group) tonight.
  • Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Tarlac, Pampanga, & Zambales – tonight until 5AM tomorrow morning.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Northern Bicol, Aurora, Northern Quezon, & Isabela.

+Waves of 2 to 6 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to a Category 1 Typhoon accelerates across the West Philippine Sea, passing just north of Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal…about 276 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2PM Sept 26: 16.1°N 117.4°E @ 140 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH 
  • TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it re-intensifies back to Category 3 status while moving WSW-ward across the South China Sea…about 815 km SSW of Hong Kong, China [2PM Sept 27: 15.4°N 111.8°E @ 185 kph]Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 930 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (255 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (315 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  70 km outward from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2k)


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Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin)


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