SUPER TYPHOON KARDING (NORU) ADVISORY NO. 09

Issued at: 2:00 PM PhT (06:00 GMT) Sunday, 25 September 2022
Next update: 8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Sunday, 25 September 2022
Current Status & Outlook Super Typhoon KARDING [NORU] has gained more strength while moving westward across the Philippine Sea, well to the north of Bicol Region. Its 1-minute sustained winds is now at 260 kph, becoming an Extremely Catastrophic Tropical Cyclone after undergoing Extreme Rapid Intensification (ERI) during the past 24 hours from 95 kph to 260 kph. 

The howler is expected to make landfall along the Boundary of Aurora and Quezon/Dingalan Bay (or somewhere between the towns of General Nakar and Dingalan) tonight.

Meanwhile, current observations from Typhoon2000 Automated Weather Station (AWS) based in Daet, Camarines Norte which is located about 113 km away from the Super Typhoon has recorded wind gusts of only 27 kph blowing from the West at 8:48 AM today.  The data confirms that KARDING is a small but compact Super Typhoon heading dangerously towards Central Luzon.

Residents living along the path of this howler must be fully prepared as landfall is only about 12 hours away. Please take all necessary precautions. 

24-hr Outlook: STY KARDING is forecast to maintain its strength and direction with a forward speed of 20 km/hr through the next 12 hours. The core (eye + eyewall) of this howler will pass over the northern coastal waters of the Polillo Island Group after sunset today, and make landfall along Dingalan Bay or near the Northern Quezon-Aurora Boundary, between 9-11PM tonight. Then between 11PM tonight to 5AM early tomorrow morning, the core of KARDING will cross the provinces of Central Luzon via Nueva Ecija, Northern Bulacan, Northern Pampanga, Tarlac, & Zambales. At around 8AM tomorrow morning, it is forecast to emerge over the West Philippine Sea with decreased winds of 195 kph (Category 3). Meanwhile, Metro Manila and the rest of CaLaBaRZon will be under the typhoon’s inner bands, where gusty winds of 75 to 100 km/hr will be expected during its closest approach to the area tonight (approx. 9-11PM). 

Meanwhile, this typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas and Western Mindanao beginning today through tomorrow (Sept 26).

Where is KARDING (NORU)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, September 25…0300 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the western part of the Central Philippine Sea, just north of Bicol Region (near 15.1°N 123.0°E)
  • Distance 1: 111 km north of Daet, Camarines Norte
  • Distance 2: 150 km east-northeast of Infanta, Quezon
  • Distance 3: 217 km east-northeast of Metro Manila
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 260 kph near the center…Gustiness: 315 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 22 kph, towards Polillo Island Group, Northern Quezon, Southern Aurora & Central Luzon.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)
  • Somewhere along the Towns of Dingalan (Aurora) & General Nakar (Quezon) – between 9 to 11 PM tonight with High Strike Probability of >90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Central Luzon (including Metro Manila) & the Southern Portions of Northern Luzon beginning today until 8AM tomorrow (Sept 26).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Southern Aurora, Northern Quezon incl. Polillo Islands beginning 2PM today.
  • Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Tarlac, Pampanga, & Zambales – beginning 11PM tonight until 6AM tomorrow morning.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Northern Bicol, Aurora, Northern Quezon, & Isabela.

+Waves of 2 to 6 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • MONDAY MORNING: Weakens to a Category 3 Typhoon as it emerges along the west coast of Zambales…about 102 km WSW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8AM Sept 26: 15.8°N 119.1°E @ 195 kph]. Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM 
  • TUESDAY MORNING: Still Category 3 Typhoon while moving WSW-ward across the South China Sea, already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 720 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8AM Sept 27: 15.4°N 113.3°E @ 185 kph].   Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
  • WEDNESDAY MORNING: Bears down the the coast of Vietnam, as it regains Category 4 strength…about 930 km SW of Hong Kong, China [8AM Sept 28: 15.5°N 109.1°E @ 220 kph]Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 320 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 919 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (330 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (315 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  65 km outward from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2k)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL



Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin)

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