Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday, 09 September 2021
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 09 September 2021
Current Status & Outlook Severe Tropical Storm JOLINA (CONSON) has maintained its strength as it accelerates northwestward across the West Philippine Sea, farther away from Luzon…expected to leave the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this evening.

24-hr Outlook: STS JOLINA (CONSON) is forecast to intensify further and will move Westward at 22 km/hr, and will pass well to the north of Scarborough Shoal around noontime today.  By early tomorrow morning, JOLINA will be well outside of PAR at near-Typhoon intensity as it heads toward Hainan Island (China).

Where is JOLINA (CONSON)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, September 09…2100 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Over the West Philippine Sea (near 15.5°N 118.8°E)
  • Distance 1: 170 km west-southwest of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
  • Distance 2: 173 km west-northwest of Subic Bay/Olongapo City, Zambales
  • Distance 3: 261 km west-northwest of Metro Manila
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 95 kph near the center…Gustiness: 120 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) Northwest @ 24 kph, towards the West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • None
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Re-intensifies further as it moves out of PAR, turning Westward across the South China Sea…about 623 km W of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [2AM Sept 10: 16.6°N 114.5°E @ 100 kph]Forecast ConfidenceHIGH
  • SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Nears Typhoon classification after passing over Sansha Island…slows down as it moves closer to Hainan, China…about 955 km W of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [2AM Sept 11: 16.8°N 111.4°E @ 110 kph]Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 220 mm [Light to Heavy]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (345 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (330 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 25 km outward from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)


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