SEVERE TROPICAL STORM JOLINA (CONSON) ADVISORY NO. 09

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 08 September 2021
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday, 09 September 2021
Current Status & Outlook Severe Tropical Storm JOLINA (CONSON) has emerged back to sea and is now along the mouth of Manila Bay, near the coast of Ternate, Cavite or just south of Corregidor Island…will eventually move out into the West Philippine Sea later tonight. Its Central Dense Overcast (CDO) will continue to dump moderate to heavy rains together with Gale to Tropical Storm-Force Winds across NCR, Bataan and the Western Sections of Batangas and Zambales.

24-hr Outlook: STS JOLINA (CONSON) is forecast to intensify further and move WNW at 15 km/hr farther away from Luzon, across the West Philippine Sea.  It will be passing over or just north of Scarborough Shoal by tomorrow afternoon.

Meanwhile, Typhoon KIKO (CHANTHU) has been upgraded into a Super Typhoon (STY).  For more details, kindly refer to Advisory No. 01 on this other Tropical Cyclone. 

Where is JOLINA (CONSON)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, September 08…0900 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Over the mouth of Manila Bay (near 14.3°N 120.5°E)
  • Distance 1: 54 km west-northwest of Tagaytay City, Cavite
  • Distance 2: 58 km west-southwest of Metro Manila
  • Distance 3: 64 km south-southeast of Olongapo City, Zambales
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) Northwest @ 13 kph, towards the West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • None
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Mindoro, Marinduque & CaLaBaRZon – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Western Batangas, Cavite, Southern Bataan – Tonight.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Re-intensifies further as it moves WNW across the West Philippine Sea, passing just north of Scarborough Shoal…about 273 km WNW of Olongapo City, Zambales [2PM Sept 09: 15.7°N 117.9°E @ 110 kph]Forecast ConfidenceHIGH
  • FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Typhoon after moving out of the PAR…accelerating slightly westward towards Hainan, China…about 632 km W of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [2PM Sept 10: 16.3N 114.4°E @ 120 kph]Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (280 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (330 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 30 km outward from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone-bulletin-iframe)

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