SEVERE TROPICAL STORM JOLINA (CONSON) ADVISORY NO. 05

Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Tuesday, 07 September 2021
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday, 07 September 2021
Current Status & Outlook Severe Tropical Storm JOLINA (CONSON) has made landfall over Eastern Masbate (along the Towns of Palanas & Dimasalang) as it weakened slightly…now moving across Central Masbate with a new forecast track towards Sibuyan and Tayabas Seas…threatens Romblon and Marinduque including the Western Part of Bondoc Peninsula (Quezon).

24-hr Outlook: STS JOLINA (CONSON) is forecast to re-intensify slightly tonight upon its emergence over the Sibuyan Sea and will turn northwestward at a forward speed of 20 km/hr. By tomorrow morning, JOLINA will pass very close to Eastern Marinduque as it approaches the coastal areas of Southern Quezon.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm (TS) CHANTHU has gained more strength while turning WNW closer to the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). At 11 AM today, it was located about 1,575 km East of Central Luzon (15.7N 136.3E), with 1-min sustained winds of 95 kph. This system is not yet a threat to any part of the country as it is forecast to move towards Batanes-Taiwan within the next 5 days. It is then forecast to enter PAR on Wednesday morning (Sept 08).

Where is JOLINA (CONSON)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, September 07…0300 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Over Eastern Masbate (near 12.2°N 123.7°E)
  • Distance 1: 24 km southeast of Masbate City, Masbate
  • Distance 2: 161 km east-southeast of Romblon
  • Distance 3: 164 km south-southeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 19 kph, towards Masbate-Romblon-Marinduque Area
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Along Northern Masbate Occurring, with a High Strike Probability of >90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Southern Bicol Region – Today.
  • Marinduque & CaLaBaRZon – Tomorrow (Sept 08).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Ticao Island & Masbate – Today.
  • Eastern Romblon  – Tonight.
  • Western Bondoc Peninsula & Marinduque – Tomorrow morning.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal Areas of Masbate, Romblon, Burias & Ticao Islands.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • WEDNESDAY MORNING: Over Tayabas Bay, near the east coast of Marinduque…approaches the coastal areas of Southern Quezon…about 33 km NE of Boac, Marinduque [8AM Sept 08: 13.6°N 122.1°E @ 100 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • THURSDAY MORNING: Along the west coast of Zambales…weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS)…about 41 km N of Iba, Zambales [8AM Sept 09: 15.7°N 119.9°E @ 85 kph]Forecast ConfidenceMEDIUM
  • FRIDAY MORNING: Re-intensifies into an STS as it moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 528 km W of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [8AM Sept 10: 16.6°N 115.4°E @ 100 kph]Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 220 mm [Light to Heavy]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (625 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (330 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 25 km outward from the center.
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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