SEVERE TROPICAL STORM JOLINA (CONSON) ADVISORY NO. 04

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday, 07 September 2021
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Tuesday, 07 September 2021
Current Status & Outlook Severe Tropical Storm JOLINA (CONSON) has slightly intensified as it emerges back to sea, and is now moving across the island municipalities of Samar Province as it tracks toward Ticao-Burias Islands.

24-hr Outlook: STS JOLINA (CONSON) is forecast to become a Typhoon later this afternoon and move northwestward at a forward speed of 20 km/hr and will be in the vicinity of Ticao Island at around 2 PM. By this evening through early tomorrow morning, JOLINA will traverse Ragay Gulf, passing very near the western coastal areas of Camarines Sur.

Meanwhile, TD 19W becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves northwestward across the Pacific Ocean. At 5 AM today, it was located about 1,662 km East of Central Luzon (15.5N 137.1E), with 1-min sustained winds of 85 kph. This system is not yet a threat to any part of the country as it is forecast to move towards Taiwan within the next 5 days. It is then forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Wednesday morning (Sept 08).

Where is JOLINA (CONSON)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, September 07…2100 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the Island Municipalities of Samar Province (near 11.8°N 124.5°E)
  • Distance 1: 31 km south-southwest of Calbayog City, Samar
  • Distance 2: 120 km southeast of Masbate City, Masbate
  • Distance 3: 244 km southeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 110 kph near the center…Gustiness: 140 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 19 kph, towards Masbate-Ticao-Burias Area
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Along Ticao Island this afternoon between 2-4 PM, with a High Strike Probability of >90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Eastern Visayas & Bicol Region – Today.
  • Southern Quezon – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • Ticao Island, Eastern Masbate, Burias Island & the rest of the Western Coastal Areas of Bicol Region (facing Ragay Gulf) – Today through tomorrow morning.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal Areas of Western Bicol (facing Ragay Gulf)

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Northern Burias Coastline as it tracks NW across Northern Ragay Gulf…about 40 km SSW of Naga City, Camarines Sur [2AM Sept 08: 13.3°N 123.0°E @ 110 kph]Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  • THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens further while making landfall over Central Luzon…in the vicinity of Nueva Ecija-Pampanga Area…about 91 km NNW of Metro Manila [2AM Sept 09: 15.3°N 120.8°E @ 95 kph]Forecast ConfidenceMEDIUM
  • FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Accelerates WNW-ward across the West Philippine Sea, as it exits PAR while re-intensifying…about 418 km WNW of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [2AM Sept 10: 16.9°N 116.5°E @ 100 kph]Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (590 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (330 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 35 km outward from the center.
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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