SEVERE TROPICAL STORM JOLINA (CONSON) ADVISORY NO. 03

Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Tuesday, 07 September 2021
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday, 07 September 2021
Current Status & Outlook JOLINA (CONSON) becomes a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) and has started traversing Samar Island, after making landfall in the vicinity of Hernani, Eastern Samar between 10-11 PM last night. Stormy weather will continue to prevail across Eastern Visayas…and is expected to reach the southern portions of Bicol Region later today. 

24-hr Outlook: STS JOLINA (CONSON) is forecast to slightly weaken after crossing Samar Island, and will maintain its northwestward track at an accelerated forward speed of 22 km/hr. The storm will be along the southern part of Ragay Gulf tonight passing very close to Ticao and Burias Islands.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression (TD) 19W has intensified slightly as it drifts northward. At 11 PM today, it was located about 1,758 km East of Central Luzon (14.9N 137.9E), with 1-min sustained winds of 55 kph and was moving NNW @ 13 kph. This system is not yet a threat to any part of the country as it is forecast to move towards Taiwan within the next 5 days.

Where is JOLINA (CONSON)? As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, September 06…1500 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the western portion of Llorente, Eastern Samar (near 11.5°N 125.5°E)
  • Distance 1: 57 km north-northwest of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
  • Distance 2: 233 km east-southeast of Masbate, Masbate
  • Distance 3: 65 km east-northeast of Tacloban City, Leyte
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 22 kph, towards Samar & Southern Bicol Area
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • Along Southern Sorsogon-Ticao Island-Eastern Masbate  Area tomorrow afternoon, with a High Strike Probability of >90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Eastern Visayas – Today.
  • Bicol Region – Later Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • TUESDAY EVENING: Maintain its STS strength while in the vicinity of Ticao Island…about 49 km N of Masbate City, Masbate [8PM Sept 07: 12.8°N 123.6°E @ 100 kph]Forecast ConfidenceMEDIUM
  • WEDNESDAY EVENING: Weakens slightly while making landfall over Northern Quezon, turns WNW-ward…about 65 km E of Metro Manila [8PM Sept 08: 14.5°N 121.6°E @ 95 kph]Forecast ConfidenceMEDIUM
  • THURSDAY EVENING: Accelerates WNW-ward across the West Philippine Sea, farther away from the country as it weakens into a minimal TS…about 315 km W of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [8PM Sept 09: 16.5°N 117.4°E @ 75 kph]Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 992 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (470 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (330 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 35 km outward from the center.
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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