Issued at: 2:00 AM PhT (18:00 GMT) Tuesday, 23 August 2022
Next update: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Tuesday, 23 August 2022
Current Status & Outlook Tropical Storm (TS) FLORITA (MA-ON) still intensifying as it slows down abruptly while approaching the coastal areas of Northern Aurora…expected to make landfall somewhere along Eastern Isabela-Northern Cagayan Area later this morning. 

24-hr Outlook: TS FLORITA (MA-ON) could become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) before it makes landfall and will move on a northwesterly track traversing Eastern Isabela and Cagayan late this morning and through the afternoon. By tomorrow evening, the storm will weaken while traversing Apayao and Ilocos Norte.  Its rainbands will bring heavy to extreme rainfall across much of Northern Luzon and some portions of Central Luzon within the next 24 to 36 hours. Life-threatening flash floods and landslides are likely to occur during the storm’s passage. Please take all necessary precautions.

Meanwhile, its trough or extension together with the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will continue to bring scattered to occasional rains with severe thunderstorms across the Whole of Luzon including Metropolitan Manila, MiMaRoPa, Visayas, & Western Mindanao today. Risk of flooding and landslides will be Medium to High.

Where is FLORITA (MA-ON)? As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, August 22…1500 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Near the Coastal Areas of Northern Aurora-Isabela Area (near 16.2°N 123.1°E)
  • Distance 1: 115 km southeast of Palanan, Isabela
  • Distance 2: 111 km east of Casiguran, Aurora
  • Distance 3: 215 km southeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 07 kph, approaching the Coastal Waters of Northern Aurora-Eastern Isabela Area.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)
  • Along Eastern Isabela-Northern Cagayan Area – between 8 to 11AM today, Tuesday (Aug 23) with High Strike Probability of >90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Northern Luzon – between 2AM today to 2AM tomorrow, Wednesday (Aug 24).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • TUESDAY EVENING: In the vicinity of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte as it weakens while traversing Extreme Northern Luzon. Moving WNW to NW track towards West Philippine Sea…about 13 km SE of Pagudpud,  Ilocos Norte [8PM Aug 23: 18.5°N 120.9°E @ 85 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
  • WEDNESDAY EVENING: Re-intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) and already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 317 km SE of Hong Kong, China [8PM Aug 24: 20.4°N 116.3°E @ 100 kph].    Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
  • THURSDAY EVENING: Makes landfall over Western Guangdong Province (Southern China), weakens into a TS…about 371 km West of Hong Kong, China [8PM Aug 25: 22.3°N 110.5°E @ 85 kph]Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 992 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Large (1,200 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (610 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2k)


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