Issued at: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Monday, 22 August 2022
Next update: 8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Monday, 22 August 2022
Current Status & Outlook Tropical Depression (TD) FLORITA has slightly intensified as it moves almost west-southwestward across the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea, east of Northern Aurora.  Its thick rainbands is currently displaced to the west and southwest of its center due to strong upper-level winds (aka. Vertical Wind Shear). 

24-hr Outlook: TD FLORITA is forecast to reach Tropical Storm (TS) Classification later today and will start moving slowly northwestward at a forward speed of 07 km/hr. Its displaced western rainbands will continue to affect the eastern & central sections of Cagayan Valley including Aurora  today through tomorrow morning (Aug 23).

Its trough or extension will bring rains and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, Quezon, Marinduque and the Rest of Aurora and has extended across Northern & Eastern Visayas, The Rest of Luzon including Metropolitan Manila today through tomorrow (Aug 23).

Where is FLORITA? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, August 22…2100 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.4°N 124.9°E)
  • Distance 1: 274 km east-southeast of Palanan, Isabela
  • Distance 2: 303 km east of Casiguran, Aurora
  • Distance 3: 372 km southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 22 kph, across the northwestern part of  the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)
  • Along Northern Cagayan – between 2 to 5 PM Tomorrow, Tuesday (Aug 23) with High Strike Probability of >90%.
  • Along Northern Ilocos Norte – between 8 PM Tomorrow, Tuesday (Aug 23) to 2 AM Wednesday (Aug 24) with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Cagayan Valley Region – between 8 AM today to 8 AM tomorrow, Tuesday (Aug 23).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a TS, turning abruptly northwestward across the northwestern edge of the Central Philippine Sea…approaching the coastal waters of Isabela-Cagayan Area…about 140 km East of Palanan, Isabela [2AM Aug 23: 17.2°N 123.7°E @ 75 kph]It will make landfall over the Northern Tip of Cagayan by tomorrow, Tuesday afternoon and traverse the coastal areas of Northern Cagayan & Ilocos Norte through Wednesday early morning (Aug 24). Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
  • WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moves across the coastal waters of Ilocos Norte towards the West Philippine Sea…about 42 km NW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [2AM Aug 24: 18.9°N 120.6°E @ 95 kph].    Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
  • THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it accelerates across the northern part of the South China Sea, approaching Hong Kong Area…about 283 km ESE of Hong Kong, China [2AM Aug 25: 21.0°N 116.4°E @ 100 kph]Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (610 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2k)


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