TROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIAN STORMWATCH NO. 02

Issued at: 11:00 PM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday, 17 July 2021
Next update: 11:00 PM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday, 18 July 2021
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression FABIAN moving slowly north-northwestward across the North Philippine Sea with no threat to the country.

TD FABIAN is forecast to intensify into a Tropical Storm (TS) within the next 12 to 24 hours and shall turn northwestward slowly across the northeastern portion of the Philippine Sea. 

Where is FABIAN? As of 8:00 PM PhT last night, July 17…1200 GMT:

  • Location of Center: Over the mid-eastern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 21.9°N 132.8°E)
  • Distance 1: 1,130 km east of Basco, Batanes
  • Distance 2: 1,174 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
  • Distance 3: 1,197 km east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) North-Northwest @ 12 kph, towards the Ryukyus.
Forecast Highlights
  • Since this TD is too far away from the Philippine Landmass, no direct effect is expected from this system. However, the Southwest Monsoon (#Habagat) will be enhanced by TD FABIAN, where scattered to “on-&-off” rain showers and thunderstorms will be expected across the western sections of the country beginning this weekend through early next week. Kindly refer to our attached StormWatch Track for the forecast wind speeds of this cyclone.
  • TD FABIAN could become a Typhoon and leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday evening, July 20 as it tracks south of Okinawa towards Northern Taiwan and Eastern China. The probability of this forecast remains very low due to high uncertainty of all of the Typhoon Global Models.
  • This StormWatch is valid for the next 24 hours.
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for T2K

 

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